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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Manuel Torres won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1527

Elo1514

Grant DawsonvsManuel TorresUFC Prediction Result

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · Saturday, December 6, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Manuel Torres won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:25

Style matchupGrant Dawson: WrestlervsManuel Torres: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Manuel Torres wins(64.8%)

Actual result: Manuel Torres wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Manuel Torres at +220 American odds

+$220 profit

$320 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Grant Dawson enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Manuel Torres is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Grant Dawson has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Manuel Torres has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Manuel Torres has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Grant Dawson

Red Corner

Manuel Torres

Blue Corner

-270

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1527

Elo

1514

Age

Switch

Stance

Switch

5'10"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Grant DawsonW4 streak

oldest →

KOvs King Green · Oct 23

vs Joe Solecki · Jun 24

KOvs Rafa Garcia · Oct 24

vs Diego Ferreira · Jan 25

SUBvs Mateusz Rebecki · May 26

latest

Manuel Torres

oldest →

KOvs Nikolas Motta · Jun 23

SUBvs Chris Duncan · Feb 24

KOvs Ignacio Bahamondes · Sep 24

KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 25

KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Grant DawsonMetricManuel Torres

3.14

Strikes / min

7.29

2.14

Strikes absorbed / min

4.08

44%

Strike defense

54%

3.58

TDs / 15 min

1.72

66%

Takedown defense

90%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.00Δ 2.21 — meaningful gap+3.21

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Grant DawsonManuel Torres

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Grant Dawson(10 fights)Manuel Torres(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +13.6|Blue -13.6

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Grant DawsonTargetManuel Torres

By target zone

31% acc · 50%

Head

42% acc · 56%

50% acc · 25%

Body

80% acc · 44%

50% acc · 25%

Leg

By position

38% acc · 100%

Distance

67% acc · 89%

Clinch

Ground

20% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Grant Dawson rounds

even

Manuel Torres rounds

Round 1Manuel Torres edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 21

Sig Strikes

9 / 17

38%

Sig Str %

52%

8 / 21

Total Strikes

9 / 17

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Manuel Torres	9 / 17	9 / 17	0 / 0	0
1	Grant Dawson	8 / 21	8 / 21	0 / 2	0

Grant Dawson

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14

Manuel Torres

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7