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Lightweight
5 Rounds
King Green won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1527
Grant Dawson
Elo1568
King Green editorial illustration

Grant DawsonvsKing GreenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · Saturday, October 7, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

King Green won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:33

Style matchupGrant Dawson: WrestlervsKing Green: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: King Green wins(58.8%)

Actual result: King Green wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • King Green enters on a 4-fight win streak.
  • Grant Dawson threatens submissions; King Green has lost 33% of fights by sub.
  • King Green has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Grant Dawson (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Grant Dawson
Red Corner
VS
King Green
Blue Corner
-620
(86%)
Vegas Odds
—
1527
Elo
1568
32
Age
39
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'10"
182.88 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Grant Dawson
oldest →
W
vs Joe Solecki · Jun 24
W
KOvs Rafa Garcia · Oct 24
W
vs Diego Ferreira · Jan 25
L
KOvs Manuel Torres · Dec 25
W
SUBvs Mateusz Rebecki · May 26
latest
King GreenW4 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Mauricio Ruffy · Mar 25
W
vs Lance Gibson Jr. · Dec 25
W
KOvs Daniel Zellhuber · Feb 26
W
SUBvs Jeremy Stephens · May 26
W
KOvs Terrance McKinney · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Grant DawsonMetricKing Green
3.14
Strikes / min
6.46
2.14
Strikes absorbed / min
3.55
44%
Strike defense
62%
3.58
TDs / 15 min
1.33
66%
Takedown defense
72%
1.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.00Δ 1.91 — meaningful gap+2.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1632 vs 1524Strikes3.0 vs 6.4Takedowns3.6 vs 1.2Sub Atts1.30 vs 0.30Form1.0 vs 1.1
Grant DawsonKing Green

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801505153015551580← oldermost recent →
Grant Dawson(10 fights)King Green(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -41.0|Blue +41.0
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff
Red +28.0|Blue -28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Grant DawsonTargetKing Green

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
7
70% acc · 100%
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
1
25% acc · 14%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
6
86% acc · 86%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Grant Dawson rounds
0
even
1
King Green rounds
Round 1King Green edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
0 / 6
Sig Strikes
7 / 11
0%
Sig Str %
63%
0 / 6
Total Strikes
7 / 11
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:05

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1King Green7 / 117 / 110 / 00
1Grant Dawson0 / 60 / 60 / 00

Grant Dawson

StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights14

King Green

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights10