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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Grant Dawson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1527

Elo1495

Grant DawsonvsJulian ErosaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos · Saturday, March 9, 2019Wichita, Kansas, USA

Official fight result

Grant Dawson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupGrant Dawson: WrestlervsJulian Erosa: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Julian Erosa wins(58.3%)

Actual result: Grant Dawson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Julian Erosa at +170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Grant Dawson (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Grant Dawson

Red Corner

Julian Erosa

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1527

Elo

1495

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Grant Dawson

oldest →

vs Joe Solecki · Jun 24

KOvs Rafa Garcia · Oct 24

vs Diego Ferreira · Jan 25

KOvs Manuel Torres · Dec 25

SUBvs Mateusz Rebecki · May 26

latest

Julian ErosaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Ricardo Ramos · Mar 24

SUBvs Christian Rodriguez · Jul 24

KOvs Darren Elkins · Apr 25

vs Melquizael Costa · May 25

KOvs Lerryan Douglas · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Grant DawsonMetricJulian Erosa

3.14

Strikes / min

6.18

2.14

Strikes absorbed / min

6.31

44%

Strike defense

48%

3.58

TDs / 15 min

1.73

66%

Takedown defense

61%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.00Δ 1.13 — meaningful gap-0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Grant DawsonJulian Erosa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Grant Dawson(10 fights)Julian Erosa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +32.6|Blue -32.6

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red +47.8|Blue -47.8

Grappler Score

Red +49.5|Blue -49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Grant DawsonTargetJulian Erosa

By target zone

42% acc · 84%

Head

55% acc · 76%

40% acc · 4%

Body

60% acc · 18%

88% acc · 12%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

37% acc · 49%

Distance

48% acc · 61%

42% acc · 9%

Clinch

80% acc · 16%

59% acc · 42%

Ground

85% acc · 22%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Grant Dawson rounds

even

Julian Erosa rounds

Round 1Grant Dawson edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns4

Control4:15

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns1

Control1:34

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 3Grant Dawson edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control4:18

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

57 / 128

Sig Strikes

49 / 85

44.3%

Sig Str %

52.7%

86 / 166

Total Strikes

70 / 109

6 / 11

TDs

0 / 0

63.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

10:07

Ctrl Time

0:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Julian Erosa	10 / 19	22 / 31	0 / 0	1
1	Grant Dawson	6 / 20	15 / 33	4 / 7	0
2	Julian Erosa	34 / 55	38 / 60	0 / 0	0
2	Grant Dawson	30 / 75	35 / 80	1 / 3	0
3	Julian Erosa	5 / 11	10 / 18	0 / 0	0
3	Grant Dawson	21 / 33	36 / 53	1 / 1	1

Grant Dawson

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14

Julian Erosa

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights18