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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Grant Dawson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1527

Elo1489

Grant DawsonvsJoe SoleckiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Saturday, June 1, 2024Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Grant Dawson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupGrant Dawson: WrestlervsJoe Solecki: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Grant Dawson wins(67.9%)

Actual result: Grant Dawson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Grant Dawson has 52pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Grant Dawson (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Grant Dawson

Red Corner

Joe Solecki

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1527

Elo

1489

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Grant Dawson

oldest →

KOvs King Green · Oct 23

KOvs Rafa Garcia · Oct 24

vs Diego Ferreira · Jan 25

KOvs Manuel Torres · Dec 25

SUBvs Mateusz Rebecki · May 26

latest

Joe SoleckiL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jared Gordon · Oct 21

vs Alex Da Silva · Jun 22

SUBvs Carl Deaton · Feb 23

KOvs Drakkar Klose · Dec 23

vs Nurullo Aliev · Jan 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Grant DawsonMetricJoe Solecki

3.14

Strikes / min

1.97

2.14

Strikes absorbed / min

1.85

44%

Strike defense

50%

3.58

TDs / 15 min

2.06

66%

Takedown defense

14%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.00evenly matched on net striking+0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Grant DawsonJoe Solecki

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Grant Dawson(10 fights)Joe Solecki(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +37.8|Blue -37.8

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Grant DawsonTargetJoe Solecki

By target zone

63% acc · 85%

Head

59% acc · 83%

86% acc · 13%

Body

100% acc · 8%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

50% acc · 15%

Distance

55% acc · 50%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

33% acc · 8%

69% acc · 83%

Ground

100% acc · 42%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Grant Dawson rounds

even

Joe Solecki rounds

Round 1Grant Dawson edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control4:42

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 2Grant Dawson edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control4:31

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Grant Dawson edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control4:33

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 70

Sig Strikes

12 / 19

65%

Sig Str %

73.3%

146 / 190

Total Strikes

27 / 35

3 / 3

TDs

0 / 2

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

13:46

Ctrl Time

0:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Joe Solecki	2 / 2	6 / 6	0 / 1	1
1	Grant Dawson	7 / 11	34 / 40	1 / 1	0
2	Joe Solecki	4 / 6	10 / 13	0 / 0	0
2	Grant Dawson	17 / 25	51 / 66	1 / 1	0
3	Joe Solecki	6 / 11	11 / 16	0 / 1	0
3	Grant Dawson	22 / 34	61 / 84	1 / 1	0

Grant Dawson

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14

Joe Solecki

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights9