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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Grant Dawson won · SUB R2

Elo1527

Elo1440

Grant DawsonvsDarrick MinnerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo · Saturday, February 29, 2020Norfolk, Virginia, USA

Official fight result

Grant Dawson won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:38

Style matchupGrant Dawson: WrestlervsDarrick Minner: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Grant Dawson wins(55.6%)

Actual result: Grant Dawson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Grant Dawson at -475 American odds

+$21 profit

$121 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Darrick Minner enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Grant Dawson (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Grant Dawson

Red Corner

Darrick Minner

Blue Corner

-475

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+380

(21%)

1527

Elo

1440

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'7"

182.88 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Grant Dawson

oldest →

vs Joe Solecki · Jun 24

KOvs Rafa Garcia · Oct 24

vs Diego Ferreira · Jan 25

KOvs Manuel Torres · Dec 25

SUBvs Mateusz Rebecki · May 26

latest

Darrick MinnerL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs TJ Laramie · Sep 20

vs Charles Rosa · Feb 21

KOvs Darren Elkins · Jul 21

vs Ryan Hall · Dec 21

KOvs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke · Nov 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Grant DawsonMetricDarrick Minner

3.14

Strikes / min

2.63

2.14

Strikes absorbed / min

2.28

44%

Strike defense

35%

3.58

TDs / 15 min

2.40

66%

Takedown defense

66%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

2.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.00evenly matched on net striking+0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Grant DawsonDarrick Minner

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Grant Dawson(10 fights)Darrick Minner(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +87.6|Blue -87.6

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -48.1|Blue +48.1

Grappler Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Grant DawsonTargetDarrick Minner

By target zone

67% acc · 93%

Head

33% acc · 25%

100% acc · 7%

Body

100% acc · 25%

Leg

67% acc · 50%

By position

50% acc · 7%

Distance

40% acc · 50%

Clinch

100% acc · 25%

70% acc · 93%

Ground

100% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Grant Dawson rounds

even

Darrick Minner rounds

Round 1Grant Dawson edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control3:59

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:25Control

Round 2Grant Dawson edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control1:15

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 22

Sig Strikes

4 / 7

53%

Sig Str %

40%

42 / 52

Total Strikes

26 / 29

2 / 3

TDs

1 / 1

75%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

5:14

Ctrl Time

0:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Darrick Minner	4 / 5	21 / 22	1 / 1	2
1	Grant Dawson	14 / 19	30 / 38	1 / 1	1
2	Darrick Minner	0 / 2	5 / 7	0 / 0	0
2	Grant Dawson	1 / 3	12 / 14	1 / 2	1

Grant Dawson

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14

Darrick Minner

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6