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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Godofredo Pepey won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1364
Elo1490
Noad Lahat

Godofredo PepeyvsNoad LahatUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Henderson 2 · Sunday, March 23, 2014Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil

Official fight result

Godofredo Pepey won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:39

Model Prediction: Noad Lahat wins(50.2%)

Actual result: Godofredo Pepey wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Noad Lahat at -315 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Noad Lahat has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Godofredo Pepey has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Godofredo Pepey has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Godofredo Pepey
Red Corner
VS
Noad Lahat
Blue Corner
+285
(26%)
Vegas Odds
-315
(76%)
1364
Elo
1490
39
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'9"
185.42 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Godofredo PepeyL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Andre Fili · Mar 15
L
vs Darren Elkins · Jul 16
W
SUBvs Mike de la Torre · Sep 16
L
vs Shane Burgos · Jul 17
L
KOvs Mirsad Bektic · Jan 18
latest
Noad Lahat
oldest →
W
vs Steven Siler · Jul 14
W
vs Niklas Backstrom · Jun 15
L
KOvs Diego Rivas · Feb 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Godofredo PepeyMetricNoad Lahat
2.32
Strikes / min
2.79
3.23
Strikes absorbed / min
1.47
47%
Strike defense
63%
0.37
TDs / 15 min
2.37
35%
Takedown defense
16%
1.50
Sub atts / 15 min
2.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.91Δ 2.23 — meaningful gap+1.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1469 vs 1500Strikes18.8 vs —Takedowns0.3 vs —Sub Atts0.25 vs —Form-0.6 vs 0.0
Godofredo PepeyNoad Lahat

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Godofredo Pepey(10 fights)Noad Lahat(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -126.8|Blue +126.8
Recent Form
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score
Red -48.5|Blue +48.5
Grappler Score
Red -49.9|Blue +49.9
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Godofredo PepeyTargetNoad Lahat

By target zone

4
19% acc · 80%
Head
5
38% acc · 45%
1
50% acc · 20%
Body
3
75% acc · 27%
0
Leg
3
60% acc · 27%

By position

3
18% acc · 60%
Distance
7
44% acc · 64%
2
40% acc · 40%
Clinch
4
67% acc · 36%
0
0% acc
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Godofredo Pepey rounds
0
even
0
Noad Lahat rounds
Round 1Godofredo Pepey edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:18
Knockdowns1
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
5 / 23
Sig Strikes
11 / 22
21%
Sig Str %
50%
5 / 23
Total Strikes
12 / 23
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 2
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:18
Ctrl Time
0:04

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Noad Lahat11 / 2212 / 230 / 20
1Godofredo Pepey5 / 235 / 230 / 00

Godofredo Pepey

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights11

Noad Lahat

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights4