Featherweight

3 Rounds

Felipe Arantes won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1364

Elo1366

Godofredo PepeyvsFelipe ArantesUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum · Saturday, June 8, 2013Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil

Official fight result

Felipe Arantes won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:32

Model Prediction: Felipe Arantes wins(59.9%)

Actual result: Felipe Arantes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Felipe Arantes at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Felipe Arantes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Felipe Arantes has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Godofredo Pepey

Red Corner

Felipe Arantes

Blue Corner

+200

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-220

(69%)

1364

Elo

1366

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

185.42 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Godofredo PepeyL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Andre Fili · Mar 15

vs Darren Elkins · Jul 16

SUBvs Mike de la Torre · Sep 16

vs Shane Burgos · Jul 17

KOvs Mirsad Bektic · Jan 18

latest

Felipe ArantesL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Yves Jabouin · Aug 15

SUBvs Jerrod Sanders · Jul 16

vs Erik Perez · Nov 16

vs Josh Emmett · Oct 17

KOvs Song Yadong · Jun 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Godofredo PepeyMetricFelipe Arantes

2.32

Strikes / min

2.37

3.23

Strikes absorbed / min

2.66

47%

Strike defense

64%

0.37

TDs / 15 min

0.93

35%

Takedown defense

41%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.91evenly matched on net striking-0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Godofredo PepeyFelipe Arantes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Godofredo Pepey(10 fights)Felipe Arantes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.3|Blue +2.3

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -371.0|Blue +371.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Godofredo PepeyTargetFelipe Arantes

By target zone

31% acc · 100%

Head

76% acc · 96%

Body

100% acc · 4%

Leg

By position

33% acc · 25%

Distance

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

30% acc · 75%

Ground

76% acc · 96%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Godofredo Pepey rounds

even

Felipe Arantes rounds

Round 1Felipe Arantes edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control1:01

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:11Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 13

Sig Strikes

27 / 35

30%

Sig Str %

77%

24 / 33

Total Strikes

35 / 45

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:01

Ctrl Time

2:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Felipe Arantes	27 / 35	35 / 45	0 / 0	0
1	Godofredo Pepey	4 / 13	24 / 33	1 / 2	0

Godofredo Pepey

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights11

Felipe Arantes

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights11