Featherweight

3 Rounds

Godofredo Pepey won · SUB R1

Elo1364

Elo1354

Godofredo PepeyvsDashon JohnsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski · Saturday, September 13, 2014Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil

Official fight result

Godofredo Pepey won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:29

Model Prediction: Godofredo Pepey wins(51.8%)

Actual result: Godofredo Pepey wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Godofredo Pepey at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Godofredo Pepey threatens submissions; Dashon Johnson has lost 100% of fights by sub.
Godofredo Pepey has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Dashon Johnson has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Godofredo Pepey

Red Corner

Dashon Johnson

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1364

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Godofredo PepeyL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Andre Fili · Mar 15

vs Darren Elkins · Jul 16

SUBvs Mike de la Torre · Sep 16

vs Shane Burgos · Jul 17

KOvs Mirsad Bektic · Jan 18

latest

Dashon Johnson

oldest →

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Jun 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Godofredo PepeyMetricDashon Johnson

2.32

Strikes / min

1.01

3.23

Strikes absorbed / min

3.83

47%

Strike defense

35%

0.37

TDs / 15 min

0.85

35%

Takedown defense

63%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.91Δ 1.91 — meaningful gap-2.82

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Godofredo PepeyDashon Johnson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Godofredo Pepey(10 fights)Dashon Johnson(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +10.1|Blue -10.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +97.0|Blue -97.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Godofredo PepeyTargetDashon Johnson

By target zone

44% acc · 100%

Head

50% acc · 57%

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 29%

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

20% acc · 38%

Distance

43% acc · 43%

Clinch

100% acc · 14%

100% acc · 63%

Ground

100% acc · 43%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Godofredo Pepey rounds

even

Dashon Johnson rounds

Round 1Dashon Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:03

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:58Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 20

Sig Strikes

7 / 11

40%

Sig Str %

63%

9 / 21

Total Strikes

11 / 15

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:58

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dashon Johnson	7 / 11	11 / 15	1 / 2	0
1	Godofredo Pepey	8 / 20	9 / 21	0 / 0	2

Godofredo Pepey

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights11

Dashon Johnson

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach—

Fights2