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FIGHTDETECTIVE
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Light Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Glover Teixeira won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1450
Elo1491
Ryan Bader

Glover TeixeiravsRyan BaderUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Bader · Wednesday, September 4, 2013Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil

Official fight result

Glover Teixeira won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:55

Style matchupGlover Teixeira: WrestlervsRyan Bader: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Glover Teixeira wins(71.5%)

Actual result: Glover Teixeira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Glover Teixeira at -330 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Glover Teixeira threatens submissions; Ryan Bader has lost 40% of fights by sub.
  • Ryan Bader has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Ryan Bader has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Glover Teixeira
Red Corner
VS
Ryan Bader
Blue Corner
-330
(77%)
Vegas Odds
+300
(25%)
1450
Elo
1491
46
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'2"
193.04 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Glover TeixeiraL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Anthony Smith · May 20
W
SUBvs Thiago Santos · Nov 20
W
SUBvs Jan Blachowicz · Oct 21
L
SUBvs Jiri Prochazka · Jun 22
L
vs Jamahal Hill · Jan 23
latest
Ryan BaderW2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Phil Davis · Jan 15
W
vs Rashad Evans · Oct 15
L
KOvs Anthony Johnson · Jan 16
W
KOvs Ilir Latifi · Sep 16
W
KOvs Rogerio Nogueira · Nov 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Glover TeixeiraMetricRyan Bader
3.73
Strikes / min
2.82
4.43
Strikes absorbed / min
1.39
51%
Strike defense
71%
2.11
TDs / 15 min
3.37
60%
Takedown defense
80%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.70Δ 2.13 — meaningful gap+1.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1562 vs 1516Strikes48.0 vs 22.0Takedowns2.3 vs 1.8Sub Atts0.75 vs 0.27Form1.0 vs 0.3
Glover TeixeiraRyan Bader

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Glover Teixeira(10 fights)Ryan Bader(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -40.8|Blue +40.8
Recent Form
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Striker Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -119.0|Blue +119.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Glover TeixeiraTargetRyan Bader

By target zone

13
57% acc · 93%
Head
9
36% acc · 82%
1
100% acc · 7%
Body
0
0
Leg
2
100% acc · 18%

By position

4
36% acc · 29%
Distance
5
31% acc · 45%
1
100% acc · 7%
Clinch
6
55% acc · 55%
9
75% acc · 64%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Glover Teixeira rounds
0
even
0
Ryan Bader rounds
Round 1Glover Teixeira edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns1
Control0:51
Knockdowns1
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:38Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
14 / 24
Sig Strikes
11 / 27
58%
Sig Str %
40%
20 / 30
Total Strikes
16 / 32
1 / 4
TDs
0 / 1
25%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:51
Ctrl Time
0:38

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ryan Bader11 / 2716 / 320 / 11
1Glover Teixeira14 / 2420 / 301 / 40

Glover Teixeira

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights23

Ryan Bader

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights16