Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Phil Davis won · U-DEC R3

Elo1450

Elo1490

Glover TeixeiravsPhil DavisUFC Prediction Result

UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2 · Saturday, October 25, 2014Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Phil Davis won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupGlover Teixeira: WrestlervsPhil Davis: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Glover Teixeira wins(77.9%)

Actual result: Phil Davis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Glover Teixeira at -210 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Phil Davis has 21pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Glover Teixeira

Red Corner

Phil Davis

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1450

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'2"

193.04 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Glover TeixeiraL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Anthony Smith · May 20

SUBvs Thiago Santos · Nov 20

SUBvs Jan Blachowicz · Oct 21

SUBvs Jiri Prochazka · Jun 22

vs Jamahal Hill · Jan 23

latest

Phil DavisL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Wagner Prado · Oct 12

vs Vinny Magalhaes · Apr 13

vs Lyoto Machida · Aug 13

vs Anthony Johnson · Apr 14

vs Ryan Bader · Jan 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Glover TeixeiraMetricPhil Davis

3.73

Strikes / min

2.85

4.43

Strikes absorbed / min

1.33

51%

Strike defense

72%

2.11

TDs / 15 min

2.99

60%

Takedown defense

72%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.70Δ 2.22 — meaningful gap+1.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Glover TeixeiraPhil Davis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Glover Teixeira(10 fights)Phil Davis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -40.5|Blue +40.5

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Glover TeixeiraTargetPhil Davis

By target zone

12% acc · 56%

Head

29% acc · 78%

80% acc · 44%

Body

73% acc · 22%

Leg

By position

16% acc · 78%

Distance

15% acc · 33%

67% acc · 22%

Clinch

67% acc · 4%

Ground

86% acc · 63%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Glover Teixeira rounds

even

Phil Davis rounds

Round 1Phil Davis edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:01

20Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:29Control

Round 2Phil Davis edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:14

15Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:50Control

Round 3Phil Davis edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:01

14Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

3:47Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 46

Sig Strikes

49 / 145

19.3%

Sig Str %

35%

14 / 51

Total Strikes

109 / 214

0 / 0

TDs

9 / 18

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:16

Ctrl Time

8:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Phil Davis	20 / 53	35 / 71	3 / 6
1	Glover Teixeira	2 / 16	3 / 17	0 / 0
2	Phil Davis	15 / 60	30 / 80	2 / 4
2	Glover Teixeira	4 / 17	5 / 18	0 / 0
3	Phil Davis	14 / 32	44 / 63	4 / 8
3	Glover Teixeira	3 / 13	6 / 16	0 / 0

Glover Teixeira

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights23

Phil Davis

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights11