Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Glover Teixeira won · SUB R1

Elo1450

Elo1429

Glover TeixeiravsKarl RobersonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · Saturday, January 19, 2019Brooklyn, New York, USA

Official fight result

Glover Teixeira won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:21

Model Prediction: Glover Teixeira wins(62.9%)

Actual result: Glover Teixeira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Glover Teixeira at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Karl Roberson enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Glover Teixeira threatens submissions; Karl Roberson has lost 67% of fights by sub.
Glover Teixeira has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Karl Roberson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Glover Teixeira

Red Corner

Karl Roberson

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1450

Elo

1429

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'1"

193.04 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Glover TeixeiraL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Anthony Smith · May 20

SUBvs Thiago Santos · Nov 20

SUBvs Jan Blachowicz · Oct 21

SUBvs Jiri Prochazka · Jun 22

vs Jamahal Hill · Jan 23

latest

Karl RobersonL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Roman Kopylov · Nov 19

SUBvs Marvin Vettori · Jun 20

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Apr 21

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Mar 22

KOvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Glover TeixeiraMetricKarl Roberson

3.73

Strikes / min

2.57

4.43

Strikes absorbed / min

2.42

51%

Strike defense

57%

2.11

TDs / 15 min

0.72

60%

Takedown defense

40%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.70evenly matched on net striking+0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Glover TeixeiraKarl Roberson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Glover Teixeira(10 fights)Karl Roberson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +21.3|Blue -21.3

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +104.0|Blue -104.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Glover TeixeiraTargetKarl Roberson

By target zone

55% acc · 100%

Head

79% acc · 92%

Body

100% acc · 8%

Leg

By position

0% acc

Distance

33% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 25%

75% acc · 100%

Ground

81% acc · 71%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Glover Teixeira rounds

even

Karl Roberson rounds

Round 1Karl Roberson edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control1:46

Knockdowns0

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:41Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 11

Sig Strikes

24 / 30

54%

Sig Str %

80%

20 / 26

Total Strikes

29 / 35

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

33%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:46

Ctrl Time

0:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Karl Roberson	24 / 30	29 / 35	0 / 0	0
1	Glover Teixeira	6 / 11	20 / 26	1 / 3	1

Glover Teixeira

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights23

Karl Roberson

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights10