← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Gleison Tibau won · SUB R2

Elo1366

Elo1353

Gleison TibauvsRafaello OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill · Saturday, May 28, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Gleison Tibau won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:28

Style matchupGleison Tibau: WrestlervsRafaello Oliveira: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Gleison Tibau wins(53.5%)

Actual result: Gleison Tibau wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gleison Tibau at -430 American odds

+$23 profit

$123 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gleison Tibau enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Gleison Tibau has 81pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Gleison Tibau (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Gleison Tibau

Red Corner

Rafaello Oliveira

Blue Corner

-430

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+380

(21%)

1366

Elo

1353

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gleison TibauL4 streak

oldest →

vs Norman Parke · Jan 15

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Feb 15

vs Abel Trujillo · Nov 15

KOvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 18

vs Desmond Green · Jun 18

latest

Rafaello OliveiraL2 streak

oldest →

vs Andre Winner · Mar 10

KOvs Yves Edwards · Oct 11

vs Yoislandy Izquierdo · Jul 12

KOvs Edson Barboza · Jul 13

KOvs Erik Koch · Feb 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gleison TibauMetricRafaello Oliveira

1.95

Strikes / min

2.19

2.51

Strikes absorbed / min

3.38

63%

Strike defense

59%

4.08

TDs / 15 min

2.49

92%

Takedown defense

11%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.56evenly matched on net striking-1.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gleison TibauRafaello Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gleison Tibau(10 fights)Rafaello Oliveira(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +12.8|Blue -12.8

Recent Form

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -353.0|Blue +353.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gleison TibauTargetRafaello Oliveira

By target zone

33% acc · 95%

Head

11% acc · 33%

50% acc · 5%

Body

67% acc · 50%

Leg

67% acc · 17%

By position

20% acc · 42%

Distance

23% acc · 92%

100% acc · 11%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

69% acc · 47%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gleison Tibau rounds

even

Rafaello Oliveira rounds

Round 1Gleison Tibau edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns2

Control0:49

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Gleison Tibau edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control1:32

Knockdowns1

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 56

Sig Strikes

12 / 48

36.5%

Sig Str %

26.5%

38 / 77

Total Strikes

15 / 51

3 / 3

TDs

0 / 3

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:21

Ctrl Time

0:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rafaello Oliveira	9 / 38	10 / 39	0 / 0	0
1	Gleison Tibau	8 / 34	17 / 44	2 / 2	0
2	Rafaello Oliveira	3 / 10	5 / 12	0 / 3	0
2	Gleison Tibau	11 / 22	21 / 33	1 / 1	2

Gleison Tibau

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights18

Rafaello Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6