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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Gleison Tibau won · S-DEC R3

Elo1366

Elo1491

Gleison TibauvsRafael Dos AnjosUFC Prediction Result

UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson · Saturday, November 19, 2011San Jose, California, USA

Official fight result

Gleison Tibau won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Gleison Tibau wins(52.8%)

Actual result: Gleison Tibau wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gleison Tibau at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gleison Tibau enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Rafael Dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Gleison Tibau has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Gleison Tibau

Red Corner

Rafael Dos Anjos

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1366

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gleison TibauL4 streak

oldest →

vs Norman Parke · Jan 15

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Feb 15

vs Abel Trujillo · Nov 15

KOvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 18

vs Desmond Green · Jun 18

latest

Rafael Dos AnjosL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22

SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22

vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24

KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gleison TibauMetricRafael Dos Anjos

1.95

Strikes / min

3.48

2.51

Strikes absorbed / min

3.23

63%

Strike defense

60%

4.08

TDs / 15 min

1.95

92%

Takedown defense

54%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.56evenly matched on net striking+0.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gleison TibauRafael Dos Anjos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gleison Tibau(10 fights)Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -124.9|Blue +124.9

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gleison TibauTargetRafael Dos Anjos

By target zone

38% acc · 80%

Head

17% acc · 52%

100% acc · 18%

Body

67% acc · 24%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

60% acc · 24%

By position

43% acc · 95%

Distance

21% acc · 72%

75% acc · 5%

Clinch

64% acc · 28%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gleison Tibau rounds

even

Rafael Dos Anjos rounds

Round 1Gleison Tibau edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control0:25

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:37Control

Round 2Gleison Tibau edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:24

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control0:55

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

56 / 128

Sig Strikes

25 / 96

39.3%

Sig Str %

25%

64 / 136

Total Strikes

39 / 110

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 8

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:44

Ctrl Time

2:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rafael Dos Anjos	5 / 28	7 / 30	0 / 3
1	Gleison Tibau	8 / 29	12 / 33	1 / 2
2	Rafael Dos Anjos	8 / 33	14 / 39	0 / 1
2	Gleison Tibau	37 / 71	38 / 72	0 / 1
3	Rafael Dos Anjos	12 / 35	18 / 41	0 / 4
3	Gleison Tibau	11 / 28	14 / 31	1 / 1

Gleison Tibau

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights18

Rafael Dos Anjos

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights32