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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Gleison Tibau won · U-DEC R3

Elo1366

Elo1353

Gleison TibauvsPat HealyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Miller · Wednesday, July 16, 2014Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Gleison Tibau won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupGleison Tibau: WrestlervsPat Healy: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Pat Healy wins(52.0%)

Actual result: Gleison Tibau wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Pat Healy at +155 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gleison Tibau enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Pat Healy enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Gleison Tibau has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Gleison Tibau has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Gleison Tibau (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Gleison Tibau

Red Corner

Pat Healy

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1366

Elo

1353

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gleison TibauL4 streak

oldest →

vs Norman Parke · Jan 15

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Feb 15

vs Abel Trujillo · Nov 15

KOvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 18

vs Desmond Green · Jun 18

latest

Pat HealyL3 streak

oldest →

vs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Sep 13

vs Bobby Green · Dec 13

vs Jorge Masvidal · Apr 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gleison TibauMetricPat Healy

1.95

Strikes / min

2.57

2.51

Strikes absorbed / min

2.57

63%

Strike defense

50%

4.08

TDs / 15 min

3.08

92%

Takedown defense

55%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.56evenly matched on net striking0.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gleison TibauPat Healy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gleison Tibau(10 fights)Pat Healy(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +12.3|Blue -12.3

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +112.0|Blue -112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gleison TibauTargetPat Healy

By target zone

45% acc · 84%

Head

28% acc · 48%

50% acc · 7%

Body

70% acc · 43%

80% acc · 9%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

45% acc · 68%

Distance

36% acc · 69%

38% acc · 14%

Clinch

59% acc · 31%

80% acc · 18%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gleison Tibau rounds

even

Pat Healy rounds

Round 1Gleison Tibau edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control2:08

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control1:26

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

Round 3Pat Healy edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns2

Control0:58

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:49Control

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 93

Sig Strikes

54 / 132

46.7%

Sig Str %

37.3%

87 / 143

Total Strikes

86 / 168

4 / 6

TDs

0 / 3

77.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:32

Ctrl Time

2:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Pat Healy	6 / 32	11 / 39	0 / 0
1	Gleison Tibau	12 / 32	30 / 52	1 / 1
2	Pat Healy	21 / 48	26 / 53	0 / 1
2	Gleison Tibau	14 / 27	29 / 47	1 / 3
3	Pat Healy	27 / 52	49 / 76	0 / 2
3	Gleison Tibau	18 / 34	28 / 44	2 / 2

Gleison Tibau

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights18

Pat Healy

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4