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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Michael Johnson won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1366

Elo1502

Gleison TibauvsMichael JohnsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2 · Saturday, December 28, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Michael Johnson won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:32

Style matchupGleison Tibau: WrestlervsMichael Johnson: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Gleison Tibau wins(63.6%)

Actual result: Michael Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gleison Tibau at -145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gleison Tibau enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Gleison Tibau

Red Corner

Michael Johnson

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1366

Elo

1502

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gleison TibauL4 streak

oldest →

vs Norman Parke · Jan 15

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Feb 15

vs Abel Trujillo · Nov 15

KOvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 18

vs Desmond Green · Jun 18

latest

Michael Johnson

oldest →

KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 23

vs Darrius Flowers · Feb 24

KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Dec 24

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Jul 25

KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gleison TibauMetricMichael Johnson

1.95

Strikes / min

4.27

2.51

Strikes absorbed / min

3.78

63%

Strike defense

58%

4.08

TDs / 15 min

0.57

92%

Takedown defense

81%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.56Δ 1.05 — meaningful gap+0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gleison TibauMichael Johnson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gleison Tibau(10 fights)Michael Johnson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -136.8|Blue +136.8

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gleison TibauTargetMichael Johnson

By target zone

17% acc · 83%

Head

18% acc · 55%

0% acc

Body

58% acc · 32%

100% acc · 17%

Leg

38% acc · 14%

By position

17% acc · 83%

Distance

25% acc · 91%

40% acc · 17%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

67% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gleison Tibau rounds

even

Michael Johnson rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:59

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Michael Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 63

Sig Strikes

22 / 85

18%

Sig Str %

28%

17 / 68

Total Strikes

23 / 86

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:59

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Michael Johnson	12 / 57	13 / 58	0 / 0
1	Gleison Tibau	9 / 45	14 / 50	0 / 2
2	Michael Johnson	10 / 28	10 / 28	0 / 0
2	Gleison Tibau	3 / 18	3 / 18	0 / 0

Gleison Tibau

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights18

Michael Johnson

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights32