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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Khabib Nurmagomedov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1366

Elo1493

Gleison TibauvsKhabib NurmagomedovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2 · Saturday, July 7, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Khabib Nurmagomedov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupGleison Tibau: WrestlervsKhabib Nurmagomedov: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Khabib Nurmagomedov wins(58.7%)

Actual result: Khabib Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Khabib Nurmagomedov at +143 American odds

+$143 profit

$243 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gleison Tibau enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Gleison Tibau (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Gleison Tibau

Red Corner

Khabib Nurmagomedov

Blue Corner

-153

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+143

(41%)

1366

Elo

1493

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gleison TibauL4 streak

oldest →

vs Norman Parke · Jan 15

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Feb 15

vs Abel Trujillo · Nov 15

KOvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 18

vs Desmond Green · Jun 18

latest

Khabib NurmagomedovW5 streak

oldest →

vs Edson Barboza · Dec 17

vs Al Iaquinta · Apr 18

SUBvs Conor McGregor · Oct 18

SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Sep 19

SUBvs Justin Gaethje · Oct 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gleison TibauMetricKhabib Nurmagomedov

1.95

Strikes / min

4.10

2.51

Strikes absorbed / min

1.75

63%

Strike defense

65%

4.08

TDs / 15 min

5.32

92%

Takedown defense

84%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.56Δ 2.91 — meaningful gap+2.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gleison TibauKhabib Nurmagomedov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gleison Tibau(10 fights)Khabib Nurmagomedov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -127.4|Blue +127.4

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Layoff

Red +62.0|Blue -62.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gleison TibauTargetKhabib Nurmagomedov

By target zone

21% acc · 54%

Head

16% acc · 52%

76% acc · 46%

Body

58% acc · 28%

Leg

71% acc · 20%

By position

24% acc · 68%

Distance

17% acc · 60%

100% acc · 32%

Clinch

83% acc · 40%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gleison Tibau rounds

even

Khabib Nurmagomedov rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:37Control

Round 2Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:09

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:18Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control0:08

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:30Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 87

Sig Strikes

25 / 101

32.3%

Sig Str %

25%

46 / 110

Total Strikes

33 / 112

1 / 6

TDs

0 / 13

11%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:17

Ctrl Time

4:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Khabib Nurmagomedov	8 / 27	8 / 28	0 / 8
1	Gleison Tibau	10 / 27	15 / 32	0 / 1
2	Khabib Nurmagomedov	9 / 33	14 / 39	0 / 4
2	Gleison Tibau	9 / 31	12 / 37	0 / 2
3	Khabib Nurmagomedov	8 / 41	11 / 45	0 / 1
3	Gleison Tibau	9 / 29	19 / 41	1 / 3

Gleison Tibau

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights18

Khabib Nurmagomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights13