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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Gleison Tibau won · SUB R2

Elo1366

Elo1352

Gleison TibauvsJohn CholishUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold · Saturday, May 18, 2013Jaragua do Sul, Santa Catarina, Brazil

Official fight result

Gleison Tibau won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:34

Style matchupGleison Tibau: WrestlervsJohn Cholish: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Gleison Tibau wins(57.4%)

Actual result: Gleison Tibau wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gleison Tibau at -255 American odds

+$39 profit

$139 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gleison Tibau enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
John Cholish has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Gleison Tibau (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Gleison Tibau

Red Corner

John Cholish

Blue Corner

-255

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+235

(30%)

1366

Elo

1352

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gleison TibauL4 streak

oldest →

vs Norman Parke · Jan 15

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Feb 15

vs Abel Trujillo · Nov 15

KOvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 18

vs Desmond Green · Jun 18

latest

John Cholish

oldest →

KOvs Mitch Clarke · Dec 11

vs Danny Castillo · May 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gleison TibauMetricJohn Cholish

1.95

Strikes / min

2.65

2.51

Strikes absorbed / min

2.29

63%

Strike defense

73%

4.08

TDs / 15 min

1.82

92%

Takedown defense

78%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.56evenly matched on net striking+0.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gleison TibauJohn Cholish

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gleison Tibau(10 fights)John Cholish(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +13.5|Blue -13.5

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Layoff

Red -273.0|Blue +273.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gleison TibauTargetJohn Cholish

By target zone

25% acc · 71%

Head

13% acc · 22%

71% acc · 24%

Body

50% acc · 33%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

80% acc · 44%

By position

24% acc · 67%

Distance

39% acc · 100%

86% acc · 29%

Clinch

0% acc

100% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gleison Tibau rounds

even

John Cholish rounds

Round 1Gleison Tibau edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns2

Control1:17

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 2Gleison Tibau edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:11

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 67

Sig Strikes

9 / 26

28.5%

Sig Str %

33%

23 / 69

Total Strikes

9 / 26

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 1

33%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:28

Ctrl Time

0:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	John Cholish	7 / 14	7 / 14	0 / 0	0
1	Gleison Tibau	16 / 43	18 / 45	2 / 3	0
2	John Cholish	2 / 12	2 / 12	0 / 1	0
2	Gleison Tibau	5 / 24	5 / 24	0 / 1	1

Gleison Tibau

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights18

John Cholish

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights3