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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Gleison Tibau won · U-DEC R3

Elo1366

Elo1496

Gleison TibauvsFrancisco TrinaldoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar · Saturday, October 13, 2012Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Gleison Tibau won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupGleison Tibau: WrestlervsFrancisco Trinaldo: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Gleison Tibau wins(57.9%)

Actual result: Gleison Tibau wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gleison Tibau at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gleison Tibau enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Gleison Tibau has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Gleison Tibau

Red Corner

Francisco Trinaldo

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1366

Elo

1496

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gleison TibauL4 streak

oldest →

vs Norman Parke · Jan 15

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Feb 15

vs Abel Trujillo · Nov 15

KOvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 18

vs Desmond Green · Jun 18

latest

Francisco Trinaldo

oldest →

KOvs Jai Herbert · Jul 20

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 21

vs Dwight Grant · Oct 21

vs Danny Roberts · May 22

vs Randy Brown · Oct 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gleison TibauMetricFrancisco Trinaldo

1.95

Strikes / min

3.13

2.51

Strikes absorbed / min

2.67

63%

Strike defense

60%

4.08

TDs / 15 min

0.98

92%

Takedown defense

60%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.56Δ 1.02 — meaningful gap+0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gleison TibauFrancisco Trinaldo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gleison Tibau(10 fights)Francisco Trinaldo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -130.8|Blue +130.8

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gleison TibauTargetFrancisco Trinaldo

By target zone

50% acc · 72%

Head

35% acc · 60%

86% acc · 17%

Body

88% acc · 31%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

38% acc · 36%

Distance

33% acc · 42%

85% acc · 47%

Clinch

83% acc · 33%

67% acc · 17%

Ground

52% acc · 24%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gleison Tibau rounds

even

Francisco Trinaldo rounds

Round 1Gleison Tibau edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns3

Control2:01

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:41Control

Round 2Francisco Trinaldo edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:14

Knockdowns0

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:28Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Gleison Tibau edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns2

Control4:23

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 63

Sig Strikes

45 / 97

49.3%

Sig Str %

46.7%

96 / 134

Total Strikes

70 / 129

5 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

87.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:38

Ctrl Time

4:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Francisco Trinaldo	19 / 39	23 / 44	0 / 0	0
1	Gleison Tibau	15 / 23	26 / 36	3 / 4	1
2	Francisco Trinaldo	18 / 42	31 / 61	0 / 0	2
2	Gleison Tibau	2 / 9	6 / 14	0 / 0	0
3	Francisco Trinaldo	8 / 16	16 / 24	0 / 0	0
3	Gleison Tibau	19 / 31	64 / 84	2 / 2	1

Gleison Tibau

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights18

Francisco Trinaldo

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26