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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Evan Dunham won · S-DEC R3

Elo1366

Elo1385

Gleison TibauvsEvan DunhamUFC Prediction Result

UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar · Saturday, February 2, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Evan Dunham won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupGleison Tibau: WrestlervsEvan Dunham: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Gleison Tibau wins(62.1%)

Actual result: Evan Dunham wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gleison Tibau at +125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gleison Tibau enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Gleison Tibau

Red Corner

Evan Dunham

Blue Corner

+125

(44%)

Vegas Odds

-135

(57%)

1366

Elo

1385

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gleison TibauL4 streak

oldest →

vs Norman Parke · Jan 15

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Feb 15

vs Abel Trujillo · Nov 15

KOvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 18

vs Desmond Green · Jun 18

latest

Evan DunhamL3 streak

oldest →

vs Joe Lauzon · Dec 15

vs Rick Glenn · Sep 16

KOvs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Apr 18

KOvs Francisco Trinaldo · Sep 18

SUBvs Herbert Burns · Jun 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gleison TibauMetricEvan Dunham

1.95

Strikes / min

5.33

2.51

Strikes absorbed / min

3.54

63%

Strike defense

61%

4.08

TDs / 15 min

1.82

92%

Takedown defense

79%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.56Δ 2.35 — meaningful gap+1.79

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gleison TibauEvan Dunham

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gleison Tibau(10 fights)Evan Dunham(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -19.2|Blue +19.2

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gleison TibauTargetEvan Dunham

By target zone

18% acc · 76%

Head

36% acc · 84%

60% acc · 16%

Body

48% acc · 11%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

83% acc · 5%

By position

20% acc · 84%

Distance

35% acc · 80%

40% acc · 16%

Clinch

64% acc · 20%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gleison Tibau rounds

even

Evan Dunham rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control1:25

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

Round 2Evan Dunham edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

Round 3Evan Dunham edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control0:24

45Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:34Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 169

Sig Strikes

91 / 237

22.3%

Sig Str %

37.7%

37 / 169

Total Strikes

98 / 245

2 / 9

TDs

0 / 9

23.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:49

Ctrl Time

1:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Evan Dunham	18 / 49	23 / 54	0 / 2	0
1	Gleison Tibau	13 / 40	13 / 40	1 / 2	1
2	Evan Dunham	28 / 71	28 / 71	0 / 3	0
2	Gleison Tibau	9 / 57	9 / 57	0 / 2	0
3	Evan Dunham	45 / 117	47 / 120	0 / 4	0
3	Gleison Tibau	15 / 72	15 / 72	1 / 5	0

Gleison Tibau

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights18

Evan Dunham

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17