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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Abel Trujillo won · DQ R1

Elo1366

Elo1363

Gleison TibauvsAbel TrujilloUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · Saturday, November 7, 2015Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Abel Trujillo won

DQ · Round 1 · 1:45

Style matchupGleison Tibau: WrestlervsAbel Trujillo: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Abel Trujillo wins(53.5%)

Actual result: Abel Trujillo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Abel Trujillo at +110 American odds

+$110 profit

$210 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gleison Tibau enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Gleison Tibau has 52pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Gleison Tibau (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Gleison Tibau

Red Corner

Abel Trujillo

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1366

Elo

1363

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gleison TibauL3 streak

oldest →

vs Piotr Hallmann · Sep 14

vs Norman Parke · Jan 15

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Feb 15

KOvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 18

vs Desmond Green · Jun 18

latest

Abel TrujilloL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Dec 14

SUBvs Tony Sims · Jan 16

vs Jordan Rinaldi · May 16

SUBvs James Vick · Feb 17

vs John Makdessi · Dec 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gleison TibauMetricAbel Trujillo

1.95

Strikes / min

2.65

2.51

Strikes absorbed / min

2.31

63%

Strike defense

59%

4.08

TDs / 15 min

2.18

92%

Takedown defense

40%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.56evenly matched on net striking+0.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gleison TibauAbel Trujillo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gleison Tibau(10 fights)Abel Trujillo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.6|Blue -2.6

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -84.0|Blue +84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gleison TibauTargetAbel Trujillo

By target zone

60% acc · 100%

Head

Body

Leg

By position

0% acc

Distance

Clinch

100% acc · 100%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gleison Tibau rounds

even

Abel Trujillo rounds

Round 1Gleison Tibau edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns2

Control1:28

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 5

Sig Strikes

0 / 0

60%

Sig Str %

—

6 / 8

Total Strikes

5 / 5

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

66%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:28

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Abel Trujillo	0 / 0	5 / 5	0 / 0	0
1	Gleison Tibau	3 / 5	6 / 8	2 / 3	1

Gleison Tibau

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights18

Abel Trujillo

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10