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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Gina Mazany won · KO/TKO

Elo1423

Elo1392

Gina MazanyvsRachael OstovichUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark · Saturday, November 28, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Gina Mazany won

KO/TKO

Style matchupGina Mazany: WrestlervsRachael Ostovich: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Gina Mazany wins(55.3%)

Actual result: Gina Mazany wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gina Mazany at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gina Mazany enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Rachael Ostovich has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Gina Mazany (53.5%).
Gina Mazany has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Gina Mazany

Red Corner

Rachael Ostovich

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1423

Elo

1392

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'3"

172.72 cm

Reach

157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gina MazanyL5 streak

oldest →

vs Lina Lansberg · May 18

KOvs Macy Chiasson · Mar 19

KOvs Julia Avila · Jun 20

KOvs Priscila Cachoeira · May 21

KOvs Shanna Young · Apr 22

latest

Rachael OstovichL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Karine Gevorgyan · Dec 17

SUBvs Montana De La Rosa · Jul 18

SUBvs Paige VanZant · Jan 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gina MazanyMetricRachael Ostovich

3.73

Strikes / min

2.54

3.52

Strikes absorbed / min

3.97

50%

Strike defense

57%

4.34

TDs / 15 min

2.03

33%

Takedown defense

66%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.21Δ 1.64 — meaningful gap-1.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gina MazanyRachael Ostovich

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gina Mazany(8 fights)Rachael Ostovich(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +31.5|Blue -31.5

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -511.0|Blue +511.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gina MazanyTargetRachael Ostovich

By target zone

39% acc · 74%

Head

34% acc · 61%

63% acc · 14%

Body

73% acc · 39%

90% acc · 13%

Leg

By position

36% acc · 57%

Distance

39% acc · 83%

72% acc · 18%

Clinch

88% acc · 17%

60% acc · 25%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gina Mazany rounds

even

Rachael Ostovich rounds

Round 1Gina Mazany edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control1:27

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Gina Mazany edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns5

Control3:34

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 3Gina Mazany edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns1

Control1:52

Knockdowns1

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

72 / 162

Sig Strikes

41 / 95

42.3%

Sig Str %

44.3%

106 / 216

Total Strikes

49 / 106

7 / 12

TDs

0 / 1

52.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:53

Ctrl Time

0:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rachael Ostovich	16 / 42	16 / 42	0 / 0	0
1	Gina Mazany	19 / 57	27 / 66	1 / 2	0
2	Rachael Ostovich	13 / 24	21 / 35	0 / 0	0
2	Gina Mazany	12 / 30	24 / 52	5 / 6	1
3	Rachael Ostovich	12 / 29	12 / 29	0 / 1	0
3	Gina Mazany	41 / 75	55 / 98	1 / 4	0

Gina Mazany

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights8

Rachael Ostovich

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights4