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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Gillian Robertson won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1544

Gillian Robertson editorial illustration

Elo1375

Gillian RobertsonvsSarah FrotaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar · Saturday, July 27, 2019Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

Official fight result

Gillian Robertson won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:13

Style matchupGillian Robertson: WrestlervsSarah Frota: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Sarah Frota wins(56.6%)

Actual result: Gillian Robertson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sarah Frota at +130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gillian Robertson enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Sarah Frota has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Sarah Frota (53.5%).
Sarah Frota has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Gillian Robertson

Red Corner

Sarah Frota

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1544

Elo

1375

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'5"

Height

5'6"

160.02 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gillian RobertsonW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Polyana Viana · Jan 24

vs Michelle Waterson-Gomez · Jun 24

vs Luana Pinheiro · Nov 24

KOvs Marina Rodriguez · May 25

vs Amanda Lemos · Mar 26

latest

Sarah Frota

oldest →

vs Livinha Souza · Feb 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gillian RobertsonMetricSarah Frota

2.71

Strikes / min

4.52

2.86

Strikes absorbed / min

2.57

56%

Strike defense

55%

2.76

TDs / 15 min

0.00

38%

Takedown defense

53%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.15Δ 2.10 — meaningful gap+1.95

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gillian RobertsonSarah Frota

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gillian Robertson(10 fights)Sarah Frota(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +169.5|Blue -169.5

Recent Form

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gillian RobertsonTargetSarah Frota

By target zone

65% acc · 83%

Head

42% acc · 89%

100% acc · 7%

Body

100% acc · 11%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

By position

64% acc · 24%

Distance

38% acc · 33%

Clinch

71% acc · 76%

Ground

50% acc · 67%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gillian Robertson rounds

even

Sarah Frota rounds

Round 1Gillian Robertson edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control4:21

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Gillian Robertson edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control3:32

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 42

Sig Strikes

9 / 20

73%

Sig Str %

45.5%

51 / 64

Total Strikes

33 / 46

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

75%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:53

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sarah Frota	5 / 12	24 / 32	0 / 0
1	Gillian Robertson	11 / 13	26 / 28	1 / 2
2	Sarah Frota	4 / 8	9 / 14	0 / 0
2	Gillian Robertson	18 / 29	25 / 36	1 / 1

Gillian Robertson

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights20

Sarah Frota

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights2