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Women's Flyweight
3 Rounds
Gillian Robertson won · U-DEC
Elo1544
Gillian Robertson editorial illustration
Elo1426
Poliana Botelho

Gillian RobertsonvsPoliana BotelhoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The Korean Zombie · Saturday, October 17, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Gillian Robertson won

U-DEC

Style matchupGillian Robertson: WrestlervsPoliana Botelho: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Gillian Robertson wins(54.3%)

Actual result: Gillian Robertson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gillian Robertson at -215 American odds

+$47 profit

$147 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Gillian Robertson enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Gillian Robertson threatens submissions; Poliana Botelho has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Poliana Botelho has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Poliana Botelho has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Gillian Robertson
Red Corner
VS
Poliana Botelho
Blue Corner
-215
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+169
(37%)
1544
Elo
1426
31
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'8"
160.02 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gillian RobertsonW5 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Polyana Viana · Jan 24
W
vs Michelle Waterson-Gomez · Jun 24
W
vs Luana Pinheiro · Nov 24
W
KOvs Marina Rodriguez · May 25
W
vs Amanda Lemos · Mar 26
latest
Poliana BotelhoL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Syuri Kondo · May 18
L
SUBvs Cynthia Calvillo · Nov 18
W
vs Lauren Mueller · Apr 19
L
vs Luana Carolina · May 21
L
SUBvs Karine Silva · Jun 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gillian RobertsonMetricPoliana Botelho
2.71
Strikes / min
2.90
2.86
Strikes absorbed / min
2.80
56%
Strike defense
54%
2.76
TDs / 15 min
0.85
38%
Takedown defense
76%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.15evenly matched on net striking+0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1540 vs 1530Strikes2.0 vs 3.6Takedowns3.3 vs 1.3Sub Atts1.20 vs 0.00Form0.4 vs 0.4
Gillian RobertsonPoliana Botelho

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801500152015401560← oldermost recent →
Gillian Robertson(10 fights)Poliana Botelho(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +117.9|Blue -117.9
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -1.8|Blue +1.8
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red -434.0|Blue +434.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gillian RobertsonTargetPoliana Botelho

By target zone

43
56% acc · 75%
Head
11
34% acc · 50%
7
70% acc · 12%
Body
8
100% acc · 36%
7
64% acc · 12%
Leg
3
100% acc · 14%

By position

9
30% acc · 16%
Distance
15
43% acc · 68%
0
Clinch
4
80% acc · 18%
48
71% acc · 84%
Ground
3
100% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Gillian Robertson rounds
0
even
1
Poliana Botelho rounds
Round 1Poliana Botelho edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns1
Control0:52
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:16Control
Round 2Gillian Robertson edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns1
Control4:32
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Gillian Robertson edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns1
Control4:10
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
57 / 98
Sig Strikes
22 / 43
55.3%
Sig Str %
55.3%
104 / 161
Total Strikes
39 / 61
3 / 7
TDs
0 / 0
55.3%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
9:34
Ctrl Time
1:16

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Poliana Botelho14 / 2515 / 260 / 00
1Gillian Robertson9 / 2417 / 321 / 30
2Poliana Botelho3 / 414 / 160 / 00
2Gillian Robertson19 / 2942 / 601 / 10
3Poliana Botelho5 / 1410 / 190 / 00
3Gillian Robertson29 / 4545 / 691 / 30

Gillian Robertson

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights20

Poliana Botelho

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights7