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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Gillian Robertson won · SUB R2

Elo1544

Gillian Robertson editorial illustration

Elo1527

Gillian RobertsonvsPiera RodriguezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · Saturday, April 15, 2023Kansas City, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Gillian Robertson won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:21

Style matchupGillian Robertson: WrestlervsPiera Rodriguez: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Piera Rodriguez wins(54.3%)

Actual result: Gillian Robertson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Piera Rodriguez at +108 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gillian Robertson enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Piera Rodriguez enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Gillian Robertson threatens submissions; Piera Rodriguez has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Piera Rodriguez has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Gillian Robertson

Red Corner

Piera Rodriguez

Blue Corner

-126

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+108

(48%)

1544

Elo

1527

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'3"

160.02 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gillian RobertsonW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Polyana Viana · Jan 24

vs Michelle Waterson-Gomez · Jun 24

vs Luana Pinheiro · Nov 24

KOvs Marina Rodriguez · May 25

vs Amanda Lemos · Mar 26

latest

Piera RodriguezW3 streak

oldest →

vs Sam Hughes · Oct 22

vs Ariane Carnelossi · May 24

vs Josefine Knutsson · Dec 24

vs Ketlen Souza · Aug 25

vs Sam Hughes · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gillian RobertsonMetricPiera Rodriguez

2.71

Strikes / min

4.04

2.86

Strikes absorbed / min

3.13

56%

Strike defense

53%

2.76

TDs / 15 min

4.04

38%

Takedown defense

81%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.15Δ 1.06 — meaningful gap+0.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gillian RobertsonPiera Rodriguez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gillian Robertson(10 fights)Piera Rodriguez(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +17.5|Blue -17.5

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gillian RobertsonTargetPiera Rodriguez

By target zone

69% acc · 77%

Head

32% acc · 83%

25% acc · 4%

Body

100% acc · 8%

83% acc · 19%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

52% acc · 46%

Distance

36% acc · 100%

Clinch

88% acc · 54%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gillian Robertson rounds

even

Piera Rodriguez rounds

Round 1Gillian Robertson edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control2:12

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:54Control

Round 2Gillian Robertson edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control4:11

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 39

Sig Strikes

12 / 33

72%

Sig Str %

20.5%

46 / 62

Total Strikes

25 / 47

2 / 3

TDs

1 / 1

75%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

6:23

Ctrl Time

0:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Piera Rodriguez	12 / 29	24 / 42	1 / 1	0
1	Gillian Robertson	13 / 25	20 / 34	1 / 2	0
2	Piera Rodriguez	0 / 4	1 / 5	0 / 0	0
2	Gillian Robertson	13 / 14	26 / 28	1 / 1	1

Gillian Robertson

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights20

Piera Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights7