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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Eddie Alvarez won · S-DEC R3

Elo1374

Elo1491

Gilbert MelendezvsEddie AlvarezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum · Saturday, June 13, 2015Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Eddie Alvarez won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupGilbert Melendez: Well-roundedvsEddie Alvarez: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Gilbert Melendez wins(55.2%)

Actual result: Eddie Alvarez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gilbert Melendez at -170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gilbert Melendez enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Eddie Alvarez has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Gilbert Melendez has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Gilbert Melendez

Red Corner

Eddie Alvarez

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1374

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gilbert MelendezL4 streak

oldest →

vs Diego Sanchez · Oct 13

SUBvs Anthony Pettis · Dec 14

vs Edson Barboza · Jul 16

vs Jeremy Stephens · Sep 17

vs Arnold Allen · Jul 19

latest

Eddie Alvarez

oldest →

vs Anthony Pettis · Jan 16

KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Jul 16

KOvs Conor McGregor · Nov 16

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Dec 17

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gilbert MelendezMetricEddie Alvarez

3.44

Strikes / min

4.32

2.53

Strikes absorbed / min

4.39

63%

Strike defense

55%

1.64

TDs / 15 min

2.92

71%

Takedown defense

92%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.91evenly matched on net striking-0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gilbert MelendezEddie Alvarez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gilbert Melendez(7 fights)Eddie Alvarez(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -117.0|Blue +117.0

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +2.4|Blue -2.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gilbert MelendezTargetEddie Alvarez

By target zone

28% acc · 89%

Head

34% acc · 52%

40% acc · 11%

Body

80% acc · 26%

Leg

100% acc · 23%

By position

29% acc · 97%

Distance

48% acc · 94%

17% acc · 3%

Clinch

67% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gilbert Melendez rounds

even

Eddie Alvarez rounds

Round 1Gilbert Melendez edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Eddie Alvarez edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:32Control

Round 3Eddie Alvarez edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 129

Sig Strikes

31 / 64

27.3%

Sig Str %

48.3%

93 / 187

Total Strikes

43 / 79

0 / 1

TDs

3 / 11

TD %

29%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

3:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Eddie Alvarez	8 / 17	8 / 17	0 / 0
1	Gilbert Melendez	15 / 53	15 / 53	0 / 0
2	Eddie Alvarez	9 / 17	18 / 27	1 / 3
2	Gilbert Melendez	6 / 31	26 / 51	0 / 1
3	Eddie Alvarez	14 / 30	17 / 35	2 / 8
3	Gilbert Melendez	16 / 45	52 / 83	0 / 0

Gilbert Melendez

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7

Eddie Alvarez

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights7