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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Gilbert Melendez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1374

Elo1493

Gilbert MelendezvsDiego SanchezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 · Saturday, October 19, 2013Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Gilbert Melendez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Diego Sanchez wins(56.7%)

Actual result: Gilbert Melendez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Diego Sanchez at +465 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gilbert Melendez enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Gilbert Melendez has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Diego Sanchez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Gilbert Melendez

Red Corner

Diego Sanchez

Blue Corner

-545

(84%)

Vegas Odds

+465

(18%)

1374

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gilbert MelendezL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Anthony Pettis · Dec 14

vs Eddie Alvarez · Jun 15

vs Edson Barboza · Jul 16

vs Jeremy Stephens · Sep 17

vs Arnold Allen · Jul 19

latest

Diego Sanchez

oldest →

vs Craig White · Sep 18

KOvs Mickey Gall · Mar 19

vs Michael Chiesa · Jul 19

vs Michel Pereira · Feb 20

vs Jake Matthews · Sep 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gilbert MelendezMetricDiego Sanchez

3.44

Strikes / min

2.69

2.53

Strikes absorbed / min

3.02

63%

Strike defense

56%

1.64

TDs / 15 min

1.51

71%

Takedown defense

46%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.91Δ 1.24 — meaningful gap-0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gilbert MelendezDiego Sanchez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gilbert Melendez(7 fights)Diego Sanchez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -118.5|Blue +118.5

Recent Form

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Striker Score

Red -2.2|Blue +2.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gilbert MelendezTargetDiego Sanchez

By target zone

36% acc · 86%

Head

19% acc · 67%

75% acc · 9%

Body

37% acc · 24%

67% acc · 4%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

37% acc · 91%

Distance

24% acc · 98%

58% acc · 7%

Clinch

50% acc · 2%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gilbert Melendez rounds

even

Diego Sanchez rounds

Round 1Gilbert Melendez edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns1

Control0:03

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:23Control

Round 2Gilbert Melendez edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:02

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 3Gilbert Melendez edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control0:29

Knockdowns0

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

96 / 250

Sig Strikes

42 / 176

37.7%

Sig Str %

23.3%

98 / 253

Total Strikes

42 / 176

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 6

100%

TD %

12.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:34

Ctrl Time

0:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Diego Sanchez	13 / 44	13 / 44	1 / 4	1
1	Gilbert Melendez	29 / 84	30 / 86	1 / 1	0
2	Diego Sanchez	8 / 46	8 / 46	0 / 2	0
2	Gilbert Melendez	27 / 74	27 / 74	0 / 0	0
3	Diego Sanchez	21 / 86	21 / 86	0 / 0	1
3	Gilbert Melendez	40 / 92	41 / 93	0 / 0	0

Gilbert Melendez

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7

Diego Sanchez

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights19