← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

3 Rounds

Arnold Allen won · U-DEC R3

Elo1374

Elo1511

Gilbert MelendezvsArnold AllenUFC Prediction Result

UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · Saturday, July 6, 2019Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Arnold Allen won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupGilbert Melendez: Well-roundedvsArnold Allen: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Arnold Allen wins(72.7%)

Actual result: Arnold Allen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Arnold Allen at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gilbert Melendez enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Arnold Allen (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Gilbert Melendez

Red Corner

Arnold Allen

Blue Corner

+260

(28%)

Vegas Odds

-320

(76%)

1374

Elo

1511

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'8"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gilbert MelendezL4 streak

oldest →

vs Diego Sanchez · Oct 13

SUBvs Anthony Pettis · Dec 14

vs Eddie Alvarez · Jun 15

vs Edson Barboza · Jul 16

vs Jeremy Stephens · Sep 17

latest

Arnold Allen

oldest →

vs Max Holloway · Apr 23

vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 24

vs Giga Chikadze · Jul 24

vs Jean Silva · Jan 26

DECvs Melquizael Costa · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gilbert MelendezMetricArnold Allen

3.44

Strikes / min

3.47

2.53

Strikes absorbed / min

3.04

63%

Strike defense

60%

1.64

TDs / 15 min

0.86

71%

Takedown defense

71%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.91evenly matched on net striking+0.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gilbert MelendezArnold Allen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gilbert Melendez(7 fights)Arnold Allen(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -136.9|Blue +136.9

Recent Form

Red -1.9|Blue +1.9

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +553.0|Blue -553.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gilbert MelendezTargetArnold Allen

By target zone

18% acc · 83%

Head

43% acc · 61%

29% acc · 9%

Body

93% acc · 25%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

74% acc · 14%

By position

20% acc · 96%

Distance

102

54% acc · 100%

50% acc · 4%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gilbert Melendez rounds

even

Arnold Allen rounds

Round 1Arnold Allen edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 2Arnold Allen edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

39Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Arnold Allen edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:40Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 113

Sig Strikes

102 / 190

20%

Sig Str %

53.7%

27 / 117

Total Strikes

102 / 191

0 / 2

TDs

1 / 2

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Arnold Allen	37 / 75	37 / 75	0 / 0
1	Gilbert Melendez	8 / 40	10 / 42	0 / 1
2	Arnold Allen	39 / 66	39 / 66	0 / 0
2	Gilbert Melendez	9 / 39	9 / 39	0 / 0
3	Arnold Allen	26 / 49	26 / 50	1 / 2
3	Gilbert Melendez	6 / 34	8 / 36	0 / 1

Gilbert Melendez

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7

Arnold Allen

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights14