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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Gilbert Burns won · U-DEC R3

Elo1466

Elo1482

Gilbert BurnsvsStephen ThompsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · Saturday, July 10, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Gilbert Burns won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupGilbert Burns: WrestlervsStephen Thompson: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Gilbert Burns wins(61.7%)

Actual result: Gilbert Burns wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gilbert Burns at +130 American odds

+$130 profit

$230 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stephen Thompson is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Gilbert Burns has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stephen Thompson has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Gilbert Burns

Red Corner

Stephen Thompson

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-162

(62%)

1466

Elo

1482

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gilbert BurnsL5 streak

oldest →

vs Belal Muhammad · May 23

KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Mar 24

vs Sean Brady · Sep 24

KOvs Michael Morales · May 25

KOvs Mike Malott · Apr 26

latest

Stephen ThompsonL3 streak

oldest →

vs Belal Muhammad · Dec 21

KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 22

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 23

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 24

vs Gabriel Bonfim · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gilbert BurnsMetricStephen Thompson

3.16

Strikes / min

4.05

3.68

Strikes absorbed / min

3.00

52%

Strike defense

54%

2.04

TDs / 15 min

0.23

53%

Takedown defense

63%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.52Δ 1.57 — meaningful gap+1.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gilbert BurnsStephen Thompson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gilbert Burns(10 fights)Stephen Thompson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -16.8|Blue +16.8

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -56.0|Blue +56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gilbert BurnsTargetStephen Thompson

By target zone

59% acc · 59%

Head

32% acc · 74%

50% acc · 7%

Body

33% acc · 11%

100% acc · 34%

Leg

100% acc · 16%

By position

53% acc · 55%

Distance

36% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 45%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gilbert Burns rounds

even

Stephen Thompson rounds

Round 1Gilbert Burns edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control3:30

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Gilbert Burns edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control0:32

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Gilbert Burns edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control3:11

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 43

Sig Strikes

19 / 53

68.3%

Sig Str %

47%

101 / 126

Total Strikes

59 / 98

3 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:13

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Stephen Thompson	3 / 4	18 / 19	0 / 0
1	Gilbert Burns	8 / 12	29 / 36	1 / 2
2	Stephen Thompson	9 / 29	19 / 44	0 / 0
2	Gilbert Burns	10 / 18	27 / 35	1 / 2
3	Stephen Thompson	7 / 20	22 / 35	0 / 0
3	Gilbert Burns	11 / 13	45 / 55	1 / 2

Gilbert Burns

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24

Stephen Thompson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights21