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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Sean Brady won · U-DEC R5

Elo1466

Elo1521

Gilbert BurnsvsSean BradyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · Saturday, September 7, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Sean Brady won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupGilbert Burns: WrestlervsSean Brady: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Sean Brady wins(79.2%)

Actual result: Sean Brady wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gilbert Burns enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Sean Brady has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Gilbert Burns

Red Corner

Sean Brady

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1466

Elo

1521

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gilbert BurnsL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jorge Masvidal · Apr 23

vs Belal Muhammad · May 23

KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Mar 24

KOvs Michael Morales · May 25

KOvs Mike Malott · Apr 26

latest

Sean Brady

oldest →

KOvs Belal Muhammad · Oct 22

SUBvs Kelvin Gastelum · Dec 23

SUBvs Leon Edwards · Mar 25

KOvs Michael Morales · Nov 25

DECvs Joaquin Buckley · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gilbert BurnsMetricSean Brady

3.16

Strikes / min

4.08

3.68

Strikes absorbed / min

2.77

52%

Strike defense

59%

2.04

TDs / 15 min

3.58

53%

Takedown defense

86%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.52Δ 1.83 — meaningful gap+1.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gilbert BurnsSean Brady

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gilbert Burns(10 fights)Sean Brady(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -55.8|Blue +55.8

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -98.0|Blue +98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gilbert BurnsTargetSean Brady

By target zone

35% acc · 53%

Head

54% acc · 75%

90% acc · 40%

Body

75% acc · 9%

75% acc · 6%

Leg

95% acc · 16%

By position

40% acc · 68%

Distance

118

58% acc · 91%

88% acc · 32%

Clinch

85% acc · 8%

Ground

50% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gilbert Burns rounds

even

Sean Brady rounds

Round 1Sean Brady edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:40

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:15Control

Round 2Sean Brady edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control0:45

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:26Control

Round 3Sean Brady edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:28

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:26Control

Round 4Sean Brady edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:50

24Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:48Control

Round 5Sean Brady edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:39Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 97

Sig Strikes

130 / 217

46.4%

Sig Str %

59.6%

76 / 126

Total Strikes

274 / 368

1 / 6

TDs

7 / 17

25%

TD %

36.6%

Sub Att

Rev

2:43

Ctrl Time

10:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sean Brady	23 / 42	58 / 79	1 / 4
1	Gilbert Burns	6 / 14	7 / 15	0 / 1
2	Sean Brady	33 / 54	59 / 81	0 / 2
2	Gilbert Burns	8 / 20	12 / 24	1 / 1
3	Sean Brady	19 / 38	77 / 97	1 / 3
3	Gilbert Burns	17 / 27	29 / 39	0 / 3
4	Gilbert Burns	7 / 16	10 / 19	0 / 1
4	Sean Brady	24 / 34	44 / 54	2 / 4
5	Sean Brady	31 / 49	36 / 57	3 / 4
5	Gilbert Burns	9 / 20	18 / 29	0 / 0

Gilbert Burns

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24

Sean Brady

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11