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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Rashid Magomedov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1466

Elo1491

Gilbert BurnsvsRashid MagomedovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · Saturday, November 7, 2015Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Rashid Magomedov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupGilbert Burns: WrestlervsRashid Magomedov: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Rashid Magomedov wins(57.9%)

Actual result: Rashid Magomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rashid Magomedov at -175 American odds

+$57 profit

$157 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Rashid Magomedov has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Gilbert Burns

Red Corner

Rashid Magomedov

Blue Corner

+155

(39%)

Vegas Odds

-175

(64%)

1466

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gilbert BurnsL5 streak

oldest →

vs Belal Muhammad · May 23

KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Mar 24

vs Sean Brady · Sep 24

KOvs Michael Morales · May 25

KOvs Mike Malott · Apr 26

latest

Rashid Magomedov

oldest →

vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Feb 14

vs Rodrigo Damm · May 14

KOvs Elias Silverio · Dec 14

vs Beneil Dariush · Nov 16

vs Bobby Green · Apr 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gilbert BurnsMetricRashid Magomedov

3.16

Strikes / min

4.40

3.68

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

52%

Strike defense

54%

2.04

TDs / 15 min

0.67

53%

Takedown defense

89%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.52Δ 1.87 — meaningful gap+1.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gilbert BurnsRashid Magomedov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gilbert Burns(10 fights)Rashid Magomedov(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -25.1|Blue +25.1

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -91.0|Blue +91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gilbert BurnsTargetRashid Magomedov

By target zone

25% acc · 50%

Head

53% acc · 74%

45% acc · 18%

Body

54% acc · 18%

82% acc · 32%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

39% acc · 96%

Distance

53% acc · 85%

20% acc · 4%

Clinch

86% acc · 8%

0% acc

Ground

67% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gilbert Burns rounds

even

Rashid Magomedov rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns2

Control1:07

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Rashid Magomedov edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:38

Knockdowns0

37Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:33Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Rashid Magomedov edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:19

Knockdowns0

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:35Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 77

Sig Strikes

80 / 145

36%

Sig Str %

54%

29 / 78

Total Strikes

94 / 160

2 / 5

TDs

2 / 2

33.3%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

2:04

Ctrl Time

1:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rashid Magomedov	19 / 39	27 / 47	0 / 0
1	Gilbert Burns	11 / 27	11 / 27	2 / 2
2	Rashid Magomedov	37 / 56	43 / 63	1 / 1
2	Gilbert Burns	8 / 27	9 / 28	0 / 1
3	Rashid Magomedov	24 / 50	24 / 50	1 / 1
3	Gilbert Burns	9 / 23	9 / 23	0 / 2

Gilbert Burns

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24

Rashid Magomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6