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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Gilbert Burns won · SUB R1

Elo1466

Elo1505

Gilbert BurnsvsNeil MagnyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Saturday, January 21, 2023Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Gilbert Burns won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:15

Style matchupGilbert Burns: WrestlervsNeil Magny: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Gilbert Burns wins(59.4%)

Actual result: Gilbert Burns wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gilbert Burns at -490 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Neil Magny has a 23cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Gilbert Burns

Red Corner

Neil Magny

Blue Corner

-490

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+390

(20%)

1466

Elo

1505

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'3"

180.34 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gilbert BurnsL5 streak

oldest →

vs Belal Muhammad · May 23

KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Mar 24

vs Sean Brady · Sep 24

KOvs Michael Morales · May 25

KOvs Mike Malott · Apr 26

latest

Neil Magny

oldest →

KOvs Michael Morales · Aug 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 24

KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Aug 25

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Sep 25

SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gilbert BurnsMetricNeil Magny

3.16

Strikes / min

3.40

3.68

Strikes absorbed / min

2.44

52%

Strike defense

51%

2.04

TDs / 15 min

2.17

53%

Takedown defense

55%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.52Δ 1.48 — meaningful gap+0.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gilbert BurnsNeil Magny

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gilbert Burns(10 fights)Neil Magny(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -39.7|Blue +39.7

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +210.0|Blue -210.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gilbert BurnsTargetNeil Magny

By target zone

80% acc · 80%

Head

25% acc · 50%

100% acc · 20%

Body

50% acc · 25%

Leg

100% acc · 25%

By position

75% acc · 60%

Distance

36% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 40%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gilbert Burns rounds

even

Neil Magny rounds

Round 1Gilbert Burns edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control2:35

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 6

Sig Strikes

4 / 11

83%

Sig Str %

36%

10 / 12

Total Strikes

4 / 11

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:35

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Neil Magny	4 / 11	4 / 11	0 / 0	0
1	Gilbert Burns	5 / 6	10 / 12	1 / 1	1

Gilbert Burns

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24

Neil Magny

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights37