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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Gilbert Burns won · SUB R2

Elo1466

Elo1495

Gilbert BurnsvsMike DavisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson · Saturday, April 27, 2019Sunrise, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Gilbert Burns won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:15

Style matchupGilbert Burns: WrestlervsMike Davis: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Gilbert Burns wins(69.0%)

Actual result: Gilbert Burns wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gilbert Burns at -245 American odds

+$41 profit

$141 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Mike Davis is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Gilbert Burns has lost 50% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Gilbert Burns

Red Corner

Mike Davis

Blue Corner

-245

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1466

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gilbert BurnsL5 streak

oldest →

vs Belal Muhammad · May 23

KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Mar 24

vs Sean Brady · Sep 24

KOvs Michael Morales · May 25

KOvs Mike Malott · Apr 26

latest

Mike Davis

oldest →

vs Viacheslav Borshchev · Oct 22

SUBvs Natan Levy · Mar 24

vs Fares Ziam · Feb 25

KOvs Mitch Ramirez · Jul 25

DECvs Nurullo Aliev · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gilbert BurnsMetricMike Davis

3.16

Strikes / min

4.73

3.68

Strikes absorbed / min

5.23

52%

Strike defense

54%

2.04

TDs / 15 min

2.40

53%

Takedown defense

60%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.52evenly matched on net striking-0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gilbert BurnsMike Davis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gilbert Burns(10 fights)Mike Davis(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -29.0|Blue +29.0

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -48.4|Blue +48.4

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gilbert BurnsTargetMike Davis

By target zone

51% acc · 73%

Head

17% acc · 38%

67% acc · 8%

Body

46% acc · 46%

90% acc · 18%

Leg

100% acc · 15%

By position

45% acc · 57%

Distance

26% acc · 85%

80% acc · 8%

Clinch

100% acc · 15%

85% acc · 35%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gilbert Burns rounds

even

Mike Davis rounds

Round 1Gilbert Burns edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns2

Control1:32

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Gilbert Burns edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control3:54

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

49 / 87

Sig Strikes

13 / 44

59.5%

Sig Str %

31%

81 / 122

Total Strikes

17 / 49

3 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:26

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mike Davis	12 / 41	12 / 41	0 / 0	0
1	Gilbert Burns	31 / 61	40 / 72	2 / 4	0
2	Mike Davis	1 / 3	5 / 8	0 / 0	0
2	Gilbert Burns	18 / 26	41 / 50	1 / 2	1

Gilbert Burns

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24

Mike Davis

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights9