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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Michel Prazeres won · U-DEC R3

Elo1466

Elo1403

Gilbert BurnsvsMichel PrazeresUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · Saturday, September 24, 2016Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil

Official fight result

Michel Prazeres won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupGilbert Burns: WrestlervsMichel Prazeres: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Michel Prazeres wins(69.8%)

Actual result: Michel Prazeres wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michel Prazeres at +205 American odds

+$205 profit

$305 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Gilbert Burns has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Gilbert Burns

Red Corner

Michel Prazeres

Blue Corner

-245

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1466

Elo

1403

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'6"

180.34 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gilbert BurnsL5 streak

oldest →

vs Belal Muhammad · May 23

KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Mar 24

vs Sean Brady · Sep 24

KOvs Michael Morales · May 25

KOvs Mike Malott · Apr 26

latest

Michel PrazeresL2 streak

oldest →

vs Desmond Green · Feb 18

vs Zak Cummings · May 18

SUBvs Bartosz Fabinski · Nov 18

vs Ismail Naurdiev · Feb 19

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Jun 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gilbert BurnsMetricMichel Prazeres

3.16

Strikes / min

2.38

3.68

Strikes absorbed / min

2.51

52%

Strike defense

57%

2.04

TDs / 15 min

3.94

53%

Takedown defense

47%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.52evenly matched on net striking-0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gilbert BurnsMichel Prazeres

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gilbert Burns(10 fights)Michel Prazeres(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +62.5|Blue -62.5

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +16.0|Blue -16.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gilbert BurnsTargetMichel Prazeres

By target zone

26% acc · 52%

Head

27% acc · 45%

87% acc · 28%

Body

58% acc · 22%

69% acc · 20%

Leg

73% acc · 33%

By position

36% acc · 87%

Distance

40% acc · 94%

56% acc · 11%

Clinch

40% acc · 3%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

25% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gilbert Burns rounds

even

Michel Prazeres rounds

Round 1Michel Prazeres edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

0:15Control

Round 2Michel Prazeres edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 3Michel Prazeres edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:45Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 122

Sig Strikes

67 / 169

37%

Sig Str %

39%

46 / 122

Total Strikes

70 / 176

1 / 4

TDs

5 / 7

25%

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Michel Prazeres	20 / 52	20 / 52	3 / 4
1	Gilbert Burns	15 / 40	15 / 40	0 / 0
2	Michel Prazeres	22 / 56	22 / 56	1 / 1
2	Gilbert Burns	19 / 45	19 / 45	0 / 2
3	Michel Prazeres	25 / 61	28 / 68	1 / 2
3	Gilbert Burns	12 / 37	12 / 37	1 / 2

Gilbert Burns

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24

Michel Prazeres

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights14