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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Michael Morales won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1466

Elo1551

Gilbert BurnsvsMichael MoralesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · Saturday, May 17, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Michael Morales won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:39

Style matchupGilbert Burns: WrestlervsMichael Morales: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Michael Morales wins(94.6%)

Actual result: Michael Morales wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Morales at -480 American odds

+$21 profit

$121 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gilbert Burns enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Michael Morales enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Michael Morales is a KO finisher (71% of wins). Gilbert Burns has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Michael Morales has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Michael Morales has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Gilbert Burns

Red Corner

Michael Morales

Blue Corner

+370

(21%)

Vegas Odds

-480

(83%)

1466

Elo

1551

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gilbert BurnsL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jorge Masvidal · Apr 23

vs Belal Muhammad · May 23

KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Mar 24

vs Sean Brady · Sep 24

KOvs Mike Malott · Apr 26

latest

Michael MoralesW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Adam Fugitt · Jul 22

vs Max Griffin · Jul 23

vs Jake Matthews · Nov 23

KOvs Neil Magny · Aug 24

KOvs Sean Brady · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gilbert BurnsMetricMichael Morales

3.16

Strikes / min

5.68

3.68

Strikes absorbed / min

3.26

52%

Strike defense

53%

2.04

TDs / 15 min

1.04

53%

Takedown defense

89%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.52Δ 2.94 — meaningful gap+2.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gilbert BurnsMichael Morales

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gilbert Burns(10 fights)Michael Morales(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -84.9|Blue +84.9

Recent Form

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gilbert BurnsTargetMichael Morales

By target zone

31% acc · 80%

Head

60% acc · 94%

0% acc

Body

50% acc · 20%

Leg

50% acc · 6%

By position

28% acc · 100%

Distance

57% acc · 76%

Clinch

67% acc · 6%

Ground

67% acc · 18%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gilbert Burns rounds

even

Michael Morales rounds

Round 1Michael Morales edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control0:30

Knockdowns0

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

2Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 18

Sig Strikes

33 / 56

27%

Sig Str %

58%

5 / 18

Total Strikes

35 / 58

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:30

Ctrl Time

0:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Michael Morales	33 / 56	35 / 58	0 / 0	0
1	Gilbert Burns	5 / 18	5 / 18	1 / 2	0

Gilbert Burns

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24

Michael Morales

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights7