← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Gilbert Burns won · SUB R1

Elo1466

Elo1358

Gilbert BurnsvsLukasz SajewskiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · Thursday, July 7, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Gilbert Burns won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:57

Model Prediction: Gilbert Burns wins(67.0%)

Actual result: Gilbert Burns wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gilbert Burns at -265 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Gilbert Burns

Red Corner

Lukasz Sajewski

Blue Corner

-265

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+225

(31%)

1466

Elo

1358

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gilbert BurnsL5 streak

oldest →

vs Belal Muhammad · May 23

KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Mar 24

vs Sean Brady · Sep 24

KOvs Michael Morales · May 25

KOvs Mike Malott · Apr 26

latest

Lukasz SajewskiL2 streak

oldest →

vs Nick Hein · Jun 15

KOvs Marc Diakiese · Oct 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gilbert BurnsMetricLukasz Sajewski

3.16

Strikes / min

2.06

3.68

Strikes absorbed / min

3.88

52%

Strike defense

57%

2.04

TDs / 15 min

1.01

53%

Takedown defense

66%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.52Δ 1.30 — meaningful gap-1.82

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gilbert BurnsLukasz Sajewski

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gilbert Burns(10 fights)Lukasz Sajewski(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +107.5|Blue -107.5

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -140.0|Blue +140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gilbert BurnsTargetLukasz Sajewski

By target zone

35% acc · 62%

Head

38% acc · 57%

71% acc · 38%

Body

63% acc · 36%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

29% acc · 46%

Distance

48% acc · 86%

80% acc · 31%

Clinch

40% acc · 14%

75% acc · 23%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gilbert Burns rounds

even

Lukasz Sajewski rounds

Round 1Gilbert Burns edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control1:22

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:47Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 30

Sig Strikes

14 / 30

43%

Sig Str %

46%

16 / 34

Total Strikes

15 / 31

1 / 5

TDs

0 / 1

20%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:22

Ctrl Time

0:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Lukasz Sajewski	14 / 30	15 / 31	0 / 1	0
1	Gilbert Burns	13 / 30	16 / 34	1 / 5	1

Gilbert Burns

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24

Lukasz Sajewski

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights3