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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Gilbert Burns won · U-DEC R3

Elo1466

Elo1456

Gilbert BurnsvsJorge MasvidalUFC Prediction Result

UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Saturday, April 8, 2023Miami, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Gilbert Burns won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupGilbert Burns: WrestlervsJorge Masvidal: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Gilbert Burns wins(54.4%)

Actual result: Gilbert Burns wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gilbert Burns at -450 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Jorge Masvidal enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jorge Masvidal is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Gilbert Burns has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Jorge Masvidal has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jorge Masvidal has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Gilbert Burns

Red Corner

Jorge Masvidal

Blue Corner

-450

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+360

(22%)

1466

Elo

1456

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gilbert BurnsL5 streak

oldest →

vs Belal Muhammad · May 23

KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Mar 24

vs Sean Brady · Sep 24

KOvs Michael Morales · May 25

KOvs Mike Malott · Apr 26

latest

Jorge MasvidalL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ben Askren · Jul 19

KOvs Nate Diaz · Nov 19

vs Kamaru Usman · Jul 20

KOvs Kamaru Usman · Apr 21

vs Colby Covington · Mar 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gilbert BurnsMetricJorge Masvidal

3.16

Strikes / min

4.05

3.68

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

52%

Strike defense

64%

2.04

TDs / 15 min

1.38

53%

Takedown defense

72%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.52Δ 1.52 — meaningful gap+1.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gilbert BurnsJorge Masvidal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gilbert Burns(10 fights)Jorge Masvidal(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +9.4|Blue -9.4

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -322.0|Blue +322.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gilbert BurnsTargetJorge Masvidal

By target zone

40% acc · 81%

Head

23% acc · 36%

43% acc · 7%

Body

73% acc · 21%

63% acc · 12%

Leg

89% acc · 44%

By position

41% acc · 88%

Distance

42% acc · 97%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

56% acc · 12%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gilbert Burns rounds

even

Jorge Masvidal rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control0:06

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Gilbert Burns edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns2

Control4:05

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 3Gilbert Burns edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control1:30

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 99

Sig Strikes

39 / 91

42%

Sig Str %

43%

72 / 135

Total Strikes

77 / 130

4 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

72%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:41

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jorge Masvidal	15 / 38	20 / 43	0 / 0
1	Gilbert Burns	13 / 39	15 / 42	1 / 1
2	Jorge Masvidal	5 / 11	32 / 39	0 / 0
2	Gilbert Burns	7 / 16	27 / 40	2 / 3
3	Jorge Masvidal	19 / 42	25 / 48	0 / 0
3	Gilbert Burns	22 / 44	30 / 53	1 / 2

Gilbert Burns

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24

Jorge Masvidal

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights22