← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jack Della Maddalena won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1466

Elo1506

Gilbert BurnsvsJack Della MaddalenaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Saturday, March 9, 2024Miami, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Jack Della Maddalena won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:43

Style matchupGilbert Burns: WrestlervsJack Della Maddalena: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Jack Della Maddalena wins(80.5%)

Actual result: Jack Della Maddalena wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jack Della Maddalena at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gilbert Burns enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Jack Della Maddalena is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Gilbert Burns has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Jack Della Maddalena (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Gilbert Burns

Red Corner

Jack Della Maddalena

Blue Corner

+142

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1466

Elo

1506

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'10"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gilbert BurnsL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jorge Masvidal · Apr 23

vs Belal Muhammad · May 23

vs Sean Brady · Sep 24

KOvs Michael Morales · May 25

KOvs Mike Malott · Apr 26

latest

Jack Della MaddalenaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Bassil Hafez · Jul 23

vs Kevin Holland · Sep 23

vs Belal Muhammad · May 25

vs Islam Makhachev · Nov 25

KOvs Carlos Prates · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gilbert BurnsMetricJack Della Maddalena

3.16

Strikes / min

5.32

3.68

Strikes absorbed / min

4.24

52%

Strike defense

61%

2.04

TDs / 15 min

0.34

53%

Takedown defense

64%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.52Δ 1.60 — meaningful gap+1.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gilbert BurnsJack Della Maddalena

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gilbert Burns(10 fights)Jack Della Maddalena(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -40.2|Blue +40.2

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +133.0|Blue -133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gilbert BurnsTargetJack Della Maddalena

By target zone

37% acc · 59%

Head

52% acc · 81%

73% acc · 30%

Body

60% acc · 13%

75% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

44% acc · 85%

Distance

47% acc · 70%

60% acc · 11%

Clinch

67% acc · 6%

100% acc · 4%

Ground

94% acc · 24%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gilbert Burns rounds

even

Jack Della Maddalena rounds

Round 1Gilbert Burns edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns3

Control1:15

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jack Della Maddalena edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control1:39

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jack Della Maddalena edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns2

Control2:13

Knockdowns0

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 58

Sig Strikes

67 / 123

32%

Sig Str %

55%

31 / 63

Total Strikes

85 / 146

7 / 11

TDs

0 / 1

77.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:07

Ctrl Time

0:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jack Della Maddalena	18 / 38	23 / 46	0 / 1
1	Gilbert Burns	18 / 35	20 / 37	3 / 3
2	Jack Della Maddalena	21 / 48	27 / 55	0 / 0
2	Gilbert Burns	9 / 20	11 / 23	2 / 2
3	Jack Della Maddalena	28 / 37	35 / 45	0 / 0
3	Gilbert Burns	0 / 3	0 / 3	2 / 6

Gilbert Burns

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24

Jack Della Maddalena

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights9