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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Gilbert Burns won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1466

Elo1374

Gilbert BurnsvsDan MoretUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · Saturday, April 14, 2018Glendale, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Gilbert Burns won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:59

Model Prediction: Gilbert Burns wins(66.5%)

Actual result: Gilbert Burns wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gilbert Burns at -640 American odds

+$16 profit

$116 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Dan Moret (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Gilbert Burns

Red Corner

Dan Moret

Blue Corner

-640

(86%)

Vegas Odds

+470

(18%)

1466

Elo

1374

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gilbert BurnsL5 streak

oldest →

vs Belal Muhammad · May 23

KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Mar 24

vs Sean Brady · Sep 24

KOvs Michael Morales · May 25

KOvs Mike Malott · Apr 26

latest

Dan MoretL2 streak

oldest →

vs Alex White · Mar 19

vs Jared Gordon · Jun 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gilbert BurnsMetricDan Moret

3.16

Strikes / min

2.67

3.68

Strikes absorbed / min

3.56

52%

Strike defense

43%

2.04

TDs / 15 min

1.25

53%

Takedown defense

45%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.52evenly matched on net striking-0.89

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gilbert BurnsDan Moret

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gilbert Burns(10 fights)Dan Moret(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +91.7|Blue -91.7

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -48.5|Blue +48.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gilbert BurnsTargetDan Moret

By target zone

40% acc · 71%

Head

23% acc · 50%

89% acc · 26%

Body

44% acc · 20%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 30%

By position

49% acc · 90%

Distance

33% acc · 95%

50% acc · 3%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

33% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gilbert Burns rounds

even

Dan Moret rounds

Round 1Gilbert Burns edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns2

Control1:23

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Gilbert Burns edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 65

Sig Strikes

20 / 58

48%

Sig Str %

32.5%

39 / 74

Total Strikes

20 / 58

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:25

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dan Moret	16 / 45	16 / 45	0 / 0
1	Gilbert Burns	20 / 43	28 / 52	2 / 2
2	Dan Moret	4 / 13	4 / 13	0 / 0
2	Gilbert Burns	11 / 22	11 / 22	0 / 0

Gilbert Burns

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24

Dan Moret

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights3