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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Gilbert Burns won · SUB R1

Elo1466

Elo1495

Gilbert BurnsvsChristos GiagosUFC Prediction Result

UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2 · Saturday, October 25, 2014Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Gilbert Burns won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:57

Style matchupGilbert Burns: WrestlervsChristos Giagos: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Gilbert Burns wins(74.5%)

Actual result: Gilbert Burns wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gilbert Burns at -405 American odds

+$25 profit

$125 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Gilbert Burns

Red Corner

Christos Giagos

Blue Corner

-405

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+360

(22%)

1466

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gilbert BurnsL5 streak

oldest →

vs Belal Muhammad · May 23

KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Mar 24

vs Sean Brady · Sep 24

KOvs Michael Morales · May 25

KOvs Mike Malott · Apr 26

latest

Christos GiagosL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Sep 21

SUBvs Thiago Moises · Jun 22

KOvs Ricky Glenn · Apr 23

SUBvs Daniel Zellhuber · Sep 23

KOvs Ignacio Bahamondes · Apr 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gilbert BurnsMetricChristos Giagos

3.16

Strikes / min

3.03

3.68

Strikes absorbed / min

3.21

52%

Strike defense

50%

2.04

TDs / 15 min

2.84

53%

Takedown defense

52%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.52evenly matched on net striking-0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gilbert BurnsChristos Giagos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gilbert Burns(10 fights)Christos Giagos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -29.0|Blue +29.0

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gilbert BurnsTargetChristos Giagos

By target zone

44% acc · 57%

Head

33% acc · 100%

50% acc · 14%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 29%

Leg

By position

38% acc · 43%

Distance

31% acc · 100%

50% acc · 14%

Clinch

100% acc · 43%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gilbert Burns rounds

even

Christos Giagos rounds

Round 1Gilbert Burns edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control3:37

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 13

Sig Strikes

4 / 13

53%

Sig Str %

30%

18 / 26

Total Strikes

6 / 15

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:37

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Christos Giagos	4 / 13	6 / 15	0 / 0	0
1	Gilbert Burns	7 / 13	18 / 26	1 / 1	2

Gilbert Burns

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24

Christos Giagos

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights14