← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Gilbert Burns won · U-DEC R3

Elo1466

Elo1382

Gilbert BurnsvsAleksei KunchenkoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 · Saturday, August 10, 2019Montevideo, Uruguay

Official fight result

Gilbert Burns won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupGilbert Burns: WrestlervsAleksei Kunchenko: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Gilbert Burns wins(63.1%)

Actual result: Gilbert Burns wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gilbert Burns at +120 American odds

+$120 profit

$220 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Aleksei Kunchenko has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Aleksei Kunchenko has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Gilbert Burns

Red Corner

Aleksei Kunchenko

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1466

Elo

1382

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gilbert BurnsL5 streak

oldest →

vs Belal Muhammad · May 23

KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Mar 24

vs Sean Brady · Sep 24

KOvs Michael Morales · May 25

KOvs Mike Malott · Apr 26

latest

Aleksei Kunchenko

oldest →

vs Thiago Alves · Sep 18

vs Yushin Okami · Dec 18

DECvs Elizeu Dos Santos · Mar 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gilbert BurnsMetricAleksei Kunchenko

3.16

Strikes / min

3.67

3.68

Strikes absorbed / min

2.83

52%

Strike defense

63%

2.04

TDs / 15 min

0.25

53%

Takedown defense

80%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.52Δ 1.36 — meaningful gap+0.84

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gilbert BurnsAleksei Kunchenko

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gilbert Burns(10 fights)Aleksei Kunchenko(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +83.8|Blue -83.8

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -147.0|Blue +147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gilbert BurnsTargetAleksei Kunchenko

By target zone

41% acc · 52%

Head

32% acc · 43%

53% acc · 19%

Body

41% acc · 15%

86% acc · 29%

Leg

91% acc · 43%

By position

47% acc · 74%

Distance

39% acc · 70%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

92% acc · 23%

67% acc · 24%

Ground

60% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gilbert Burns rounds

even

Aleksei Kunchenko rounds

Round 1Gilbert Burns edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control3:07

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Gilbert Burns edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control1:46

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 3Aleksei Kunchenko edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control2:05

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 83

Sig Strikes

47 / 102

49.3%

Sig Str %

46.7%

63 / 107

Total Strikes

115 / 172

3 / 7

TDs

0 / 1

44.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:58

Ctrl Time

0:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Aleksei Kunchenko	7 / 15	19 / 27	0 / 0
1	Gilbert Burns	15 / 27	30 / 44	1 / 2
2	Aleksei Kunchenko	16 / 47	31 / 62	0 / 1
2	Gilbert Burns	19 / 37	24 / 43	1 / 2
3	Aleksei Kunchenko	24 / 40	65 / 83	0 / 0
3	Gilbert Burns	8 / 19	9 / 20	1 / 3

Gilbert Burns

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24

Aleksei Kunchenko

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4