Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Tom Lawlor won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1411

Elo1490

Gian VillantevsTom LawlorUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · Saturday, July 25, 2015Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Tom Lawlor won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:27

Style matchupGian Villante: Pressure fightervsTom Lawlor: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Gian Villante wins(63.6%)

Actual result: Tom Lawlor wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gian Villante at -220 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gian Villante enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Gian Villante has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Tom Lawlor (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Gian Villante

Red Corner

Tom Lawlor

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1411

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'0"

193.04 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gian VillanteL4 streak

oldest →

vs Ed Herman · Oct 18

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Feb 19

SUBvs Maurice Greene · Jun 20

vs Jake Collier · Dec 20

KOvs Chris Barnett · Nov 21

latest

Tom Lawlor

oldest →

SUBvs Chris Weidman · Nov 11

KOvs Jason MacDonald · May 12

vs Francis Carmont · Nov 12

SUBvs Michael Kuiper · Apr 13

vs Corey Anderson · Mar 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gian VillanteMetricTom Lawlor

4.38

Strikes / min

2.50

5.47

Strikes absorbed / min

2.41

55%

Strike defense

60%

0.45

TDs / 15 min

2.46

83%

Takedown defense

57%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.09Δ 1.18 — meaningful gap+0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gian VillanteTom Lawlor

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gian Villante(10 fights)Tom Lawlor(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -79.7|Blue +79.7

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -742.0|Blue +742.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gian VillanteTargetTom Lawlor

By target zone

38% acc · 58%

Head

36% acc · 77%

57% acc · 13%

Body

100% acc · 14%

100% acc · 29%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

48% acc · 94%

Distance

43% acc · 95%

67% acc · 6%

Clinch

33% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gian Villante rounds

even

Tom Lawlor rounds

Round 1Gian Villante edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns1

Control0:03

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Tom Lawlor edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 64

Sig Strikes

22 / 52

54%

Sig Str %

45%

31 / 64

Total Strikes

25 / 55

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tom Lawlor	18 / 44	18 / 44	0 / 1
1	Gian Villante	26 / 56	26 / 56	1 / 1
2	Tom Lawlor	4 / 8	7 / 11	0 / 0
2	Gian Villante	5 / 8	5 / 8	0 / 0

Gian Villante

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights18

Tom Lawlor

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights8