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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Gian Villante won · S-DEC R3

Elo1411

Elo1359

Gian VillantevsSean O'ConnellUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Marquardt · Saturday, June 28, 2014Auckland, New Zealand

Official fight result

Gian Villante won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupGian Villante: Pressure fightervsSean O'Connell: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Gian Villante wins(59.2%)

Actual result: Gian Villante wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gian Villante at -265 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gian Villante enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Sean O'Connell enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Gian Villante is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Sean O'Connell has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Gian Villante has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Gian Villante has 53pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Gian Villante

Red Corner

Sean O'Connell

Blue Corner

-265

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1411

Elo

1359

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'1"

193.04 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gian VillanteL4 streak

oldest →

vs Ed Herman · Oct 18

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Feb 19

SUBvs Maurice Greene · Jun 20

vs Jake Collier · Dec 20

KOvs Chris Barnett · Nov 21

latest

Sean O'ConnellL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Matt Van Buren · Jan 15

KOvs Anthony Perosh · May 15

KOvs Ilir Latifi · Jan 16

vs Steve Bosse · Jun 16

KOvs Corey Anderson · Dec 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gian VillanteMetricSean O'Connell

4.38

Strikes / min

5.46

5.47

Strikes absorbed / min

6.77

55%

Strike defense

45%

0.45

TDs / 15 min

0.00

83%

Takedown defense

30%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.09evenly matched on net striking-1.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gian VillanteSean O'Connell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gian Villante(10 fights)Sean O'Connell(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +52.1|Blue -52.1

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +24.0|Blue -24.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gian VillanteTargetSean O'Connell

By target zone

45% acc · 59%

Head

38% acc · 64%

92% acc · 25%

Body

77% acc · 16%

88% acc · 16%

Leg

96% acc · 20%

By position

52% acc · 80%

Distance

44% acc · 84%

86% acc · 20%

Clinch

89% acc · 16%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gian Villante rounds

even

Sean O'Connell rounds

Round 1Sean O'Connell edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:02

41Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:02Control

Round 2Sean O'Connell edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns0

40Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:10Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Sean O'Connell edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:04

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:59Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

93 / 164

Sig Strikes

109 / 228

56.3%

Sig Str %

47.3%

120 / 194

Total Strikes

153 / 276

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 4

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

4:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sean O'Connell	41 / 74	66 / 101	0 / 2	0
1	Gian Villante	33 / 51	45 / 64	0 / 1	0
2	Sean O'Connell	40 / 81	55 / 98	0 / 1	0
2	Gian Villante	34 / 59	39 / 65	0 / 0	0
3	Sean O'Connell	28 / 73	32 / 77	0 / 1	2
3	Gian Villante	26 / 54	36 / 65	0 / 0	0

Gian Villante

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights18

Sean O'Connell

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7