Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Gian Villante won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1411

Elo1492

Gian VillantevsSaparbeg SafarovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdurakhimov · Friday, December 9, 2016Albany, New York, USA

Official fight result

Gian Villante won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:54

Style matchupGian Villante: Pressure fightervsSaparbeg Safarov: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Gian Villante wins(63.1%)

Actual result: Gian Villante wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gian Villante at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gian Villante enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Gian Villante has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Gian Villante

Red Corner

Saparbeg Safarov

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1411

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'1"

193.04 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gian VillanteL4 streak

oldest →

vs Ed Herman · Oct 18

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Feb 19

SUBvs Maurice Greene · Jun 20

vs Jake Collier · Dec 20

KOvs Chris Barnett · Nov 21

latest

Saparbeg Safarov

oldest →

SUBvs Tyson Pedro · Feb 18

vs Nicolae Negumereanu · Mar 19

SUBvs Rodolfo Vieira · Mar 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gian VillanteMetricSaparbeg Safarov

4.38

Strikes / min

4.03

5.47

Strikes absorbed / min

2.96

55%

Strike defense

47%

0.45

TDs / 15 min

2.52

83%

Takedown defense

33%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.09Δ 2.16 — meaningful gap+1.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gian VillanteSaparbeg Safarov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gian Villante(10 fights)Saparbeg Safarov(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -81.3|Blue +81.3

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -47.6|Blue +47.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gian VillanteTargetSaparbeg Safarov

By target zone

53% acc · 82%

Head

25% acc · 81%

40% acc · 3%

Body

60% acc · 16%

90% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

49% acc · 67%

Distance

28% acc · 95%

91% acc · 17%

Clinch

50% acc · 5%

63% acc · 17%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gian Villante rounds

even

Saparbeg Safarov rounds

Round 1Gian Villante edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:24

Knockdowns1

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Gian Villante edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 108

Sig Strikes

37 / 131

57%

Sig Str %

24.5%

73 / 121

Total Strikes

37 / 131

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:24

Ctrl Time

0:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Saparbeg Safarov	31 / 98	31 / 98	0 / 0
1	Gian Villante	35 / 69	38 / 72	0 / 0
2	Saparbeg Safarov	6 / 33	6 / 33	0 / 2
2	Gian Villante	25 / 39	35 / 49	0 / 0

Gian Villante

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights18

Saparbeg Safarov

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights4