Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Sam Alvey won · S-DEC R3

Elo1411

Elo1431

Gian VillantevsSam AlveyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · Friday, June 1, 2018Utica, New York, USA

Official fight result

Sam Alvey won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupGian Villante: Pressure fightervsSam Alvey: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Sam Alvey wins(52.3%)

Actual result: Sam Alvey wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sam Alvey at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gian Villante enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Sam Alvey (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Gian Villante

Red Corner

Sam Alvey

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1411

Elo

1431

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'2"

193.04 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gian VillanteL4 streak

oldest →

vs Ed Herman · Oct 18

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Feb 19

SUBvs Maurice Greene · Jun 20

vs Jake Collier · Dec 20

KOvs Chris Barnett · Nov 21

latest

Sam AlveyL5 streak

oldest →

vs Ryan Spann · May 20

SUBvs Julian Marquez · Apr 21

vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 22

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gian VillanteMetricSam Alvey

4.38

Strikes / min

3.28

5.47

Strikes absorbed / min

3.63

55%

Strike defense

52%

0.45

TDs / 15 min

0.06

83%

Takedown defense

82%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.09evenly matched on net striking-0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gian VillanteSam Alvey

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gian Villante(10 fights)Sam Alvey(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -19.8|Blue +19.8

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gian VillanteTargetSam Alvey

By target zone

22% acc · 40%

Head

38% acc · 75%

52% acc · 24%

Body

50% acc · 4%

95% acc · 36%

Leg

79% acc · 21%

By position

38% acc · 100%

Distance

44% acc · 92%

Clinch

44% acc · 8%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gian Villante rounds

even

Sam Alvey rounds

Round 1Sam Alvey edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Sam Alvey edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Gian Villante edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:06

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

50 / 133

Sig Strikes

53 / 122

38.3%

Sig Str %

43.3%

50 / 133

Total Strikes

59 / 128

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sam Alvey	18 / 40	18 / 40	0 / 0
1	Gian Villante	16 / 41	16 / 41	0 / 0
2	Sam Alvey	21 / 41	21 / 41	0 / 0
2	Gian Villante	18 / 39	18 / 39	0 / 0
3	Sam Alvey	14 / 41	20 / 47	0 / 0
3	Gian Villante	16 / 53	16 / 53	0 / 0

Gian Villante

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights18

Sam Alvey

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights23