Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Maurice Greene won · SUB R3

Elo1411

Elo1400

Gian VillantevsMaurice GreeneUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker · Saturday, June 27, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Maurice Greene won

SUB · Round 3 · 3:44

Model Prediction: Maurice Greene wins(64.9%)

Actual result: Maurice Greene wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Maurice Greene at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gian Villante enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Maurice Greene enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Gian Villante is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Maurice Greene has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Gian Villante has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Gian Villante has 56pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Maurice Greene has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Gian Villante

Red Corner

Maurice Greene

Blue Corner

+180

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-230

(70%)

1411

Elo

1400

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'7"

193.04 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gian VillanteL3 streak

oldest →

vs Sam Alvey · Jun 18

vs Ed Herman · Oct 18

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Feb 19

vs Jake Collier · Dec 20

KOvs Chris Barnett · Nov 21

latest

Maurice GreeneL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Junior Albini · Jun 19

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Oct 19

SUBvs Aleksei Oleinik · Jan 20

KOvs Greg Hardy · Oct 20

vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · May 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gian VillanteMetricMaurice Greene

4.38

Strikes / min

3.28

5.47

Strikes absorbed / min

3.61

55%

Strike defense

45%

0.45

TDs / 15 min

0.00

83%

Takedown defense

27%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.09evenly matched on net striking-0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gian VillanteMaurice Greene

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gian Villante(10 fights)Maurice Greene(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +10.5|Blue -10.5

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +2.3|Blue -2.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +329.0|Blue -329.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gian VillanteTargetMaurice Greene

By target zone

59% acc · 49%

Head

28% acc · 38%

69% acc · 15%

Body

63% acc · 19%

87% acc · 36%

Leg

87% acc · 43%

By position

65% acc · 71%

Distance

46% acc · 98%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

81% acc · 29%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gian Villante rounds

even

Maurice Greene rounds

Round 1Maurice Greene edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Maurice Greene edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Gian Villante edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control2:37

Knockdowns1

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

72 / 105

Sig Strikes

63 / 137

68.3%

Sig Str %

49%

91 / 126

Total Strikes

64 / 139

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:37

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Maurice Greene	30 / 58	30 / 58	0 / 0	0
1	Gian Villante	23 / 32	23 / 32	0 / 0	0
2	Maurice Greene	26 / 67	26 / 67	0 / 0	0
2	Gian Villante	23 / 39	23 / 39	0 / 0	0
3	Maurice Greene	7 / 12	8 / 14	0 / 0	1
3	Gian Villante	26 / 34	45 / 55	0 / 0	0

Gian Villante

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights18

Maurice Greene

StanceOrthodox

Height79.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights8