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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Jake Collier won · U-DEC

Elo1411

Elo1474

Gian VillantevsJake CollierUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori · Saturday, December 5, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jake Collier won

U-DEC

Style matchupGian Villante: Pressure fightervsJake Collier: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Jake Collier wins(52.7%)

Actual result: Jake Collier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jake Collier at +160 American odds

+$160 profit

$260 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gian Villante enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jake Collier enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Gian Villante has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Gian Villante

Red Corner

Jake Collier

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1411

Elo

1474

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gian VillanteL3 streak

oldest →

vs Sam Alvey · Jun 18

vs Ed Herman · Oct 18

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Feb 19

SUBvs Maurice Greene · Jun 20

KOvs Chris Barnett · Nov 21

latest

Jake CollierL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Chase Sherman · Jan 22

vs Andrei Arlovski · Apr 22

KOvs Chris Barnett · Sep 22

vs Martin Buday · Apr 23

vs Mohammed Usman · Sep 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gian VillanteMetricJake Collier

4.38

Strikes / min

5.80

5.47

Strikes absorbed / min

5.08

55%

Strike defense

50%

0.45

TDs / 15 min

0.71

83%

Takedown defense

67%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.09Δ 1.81 — meaningful gap+0.72

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gian VillanteJake Collier

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gian Villante(10 fights)Jake Collier(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gian VillanteTargetJake Collier

By target zone

35% acc · 73%

Head

39% acc · 72%

74% acc · 18%

Body

66% acc · 15%

80% acc · 10%

Leg

89% acc · 13%

By position

40% acc · 99%

Distance

121

45% acc · 98%

100% acc · 1%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gian Villante rounds

even

Jake Collier rounds

Round 1Jake Collier edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

49Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jake Collier edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:00

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 3Jake Collier edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

80 / 197

Sig Strikes

123 / 272

40%

Sig Str %

44.7%

81 / 198

Total Strikes

126 / 277

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jake Collier	49 / 102	49 / 104	0 / 0
1	Gian Villante	27 / 65	28 / 66	0 / 0
2	Jake Collier	38 / 91	39 / 92	0 / 0
2	Gian Villante	30 / 71	30 / 71	0 / 0
3	Jake Collier	36 / 79	38 / 81	0 / 0
3	Gian Villante	23 / 61	23 / 61	0 / 0

Gian Villante

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights18

Jake Collier

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights14