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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Gian Villante won · S-DEC R3
Elo1411
Elo1458
Ed Herman

Gian VillantevsEd HermanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith · Saturday, October 27, 2018Moncton, New Brunswick, Canada

Official fight result

Gian Villante won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupGian Villante: Pressure fightervsEd Herman: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Ed Herman wins(68.5%)

Actual result: Gian Villante wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ed Herman at +195 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Gian Villante enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
  • Gian Villante has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Gian Villante has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Gian Villante
Red Corner
VS
Ed Herman
Blue Corner
-235
(70%)
Vegas Odds
+195
(34%)
1411
Elo
1458
40
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'1"
193.04 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gian VillanteL5 streak
oldest →
L
vs Sam Alvey · Jun 18
L
KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Feb 19
L
SUBvs Maurice Greene · Jun 20
L
vs Jake Collier · Dec 20
L
KOvs Chris Barnett · Nov 21
latest
Ed HermanL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 19
W
vs Khadis Ibragimov · Nov 19
W
SUBvs Mike Rodriguez · Sep 20
L
vs Alonzo Menifield · Aug 21
L
KOvs Zak Cummings · Apr 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gian VillanteMetricEd Herman
4.38
Strikes / min
3.31
5.47
Strikes absorbed / min
3.71
55%
Strike defense
42%
0.45
TDs / 15 min
1.96
83%
Takedown defense
59%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.09evenly matched on net striking-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1491 vs 1527Strikes50.1 vs 27.0Takedowns0.4 vs 1.6Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.80Form-0.3 vs -0.7
Gian VillanteEd Herman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Gian Villante(10 fights)Ed Herman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -47.1|Blue +47.1
Recent Form
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff
Red -329.0|Blue +329.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gian VillanteTargetEd Herman

By target zone

69
34% acc · 85%
Head
63
33% acc · 75%
8
67% acc · 10%
Body
7
41% acc · 8%
4
100% acc · 5%
Leg
14
88% acc · 17%

By position

81
38% acc · 100%
Distance
83
38% acc · 99%
0
0% acc
Clinch
1
33% acc · 1%
0
Ground
0
0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Gian Villante rounds
1
even
1
Ed Herman rounds
Round 1Gian Villante edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns0
Control0:00
24Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Ed Herman edged it
Sig. strikes32
Takedowns0
Control0:00
39Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:04
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:06Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
81 / 217
Sig Strikes
84 / 223
37%
Sig Str %
36.7%
81 / 217
Total Strikes
85 / 224
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 1
0%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:04
Ctrl Time
0:06

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ed Herman24 / 7824 / 780 / 00
1Gian Villante26 / 6826 / 680 / 00
2Ed Herman39 / 8439 / 840 / 00
2Gian Villante32 / 8232 / 820 / 00
3Ed Herman21 / 6122 / 620 / 10
3Gian Villante23 / 6723 / 670 / 10

Gian Villante

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights18

Ed Herman

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights16