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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Chris Barnett won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1411

Elo1483

Gian VillantevsChris BarnettUFC Prediction Result

UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · Saturday, November 6, 2021New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Chris Barnett won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:23

Style matchupGian Villante: Pressure fightervsChris Barnett: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Chris Barnett wins(51.1%)

Actual result: Chris Barnett wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Barnett at +105 American odds

+$105 profit

$205 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gian Villante enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Gian Villante has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Gian Villante has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Gian Villante

Red Corner

Chris Barnett

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1411

Elo

1483

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

5'9"

193.04 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gian VillanteL3 streak

oldest →

vs Sam Alvey · Jun 18

vs Ed Herman · Oct 18

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Feb 19

SUBvs Maurice Greene · Jun 20

vs Jake Collier · Dec 20

latest

Chris BarnettL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Ben Rothwell · May 21

vs Martin Buday · Apr 22

KOvs Jake Collier · Sep 22

KOvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Oct 24

vs Hamdy Abdelwahab · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gian VillanteMetricChris Barnett

4.38

Strikes / min

3.36

5.47

Strikes absorbed / min

6.55

55%

Strike defense

36%

0.45

TDs / 15 min

0.00

83%

Takedown defense

35%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.09Δ 2.10 — meaningful gap-3.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gian VillanteChris Barnett

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gian Villante(10 fights)Chris Barnett(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -72.3|Blue +72.3

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +168.0|Blue -168.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gian VillanteTargetChris Barnett

By target zone

25% acc · 20%

Head

32% acc · 34%

91% acc · 70%

Body

80% acc · 11%

75% acc · 10%

Leg

88% acc · 55%

By position

57% acc · 93%

Distance

54% acc · 74%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

Ground

53% acc · 24%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gian Villante rounds

even

Chris Barnett rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:08

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Chris Barnett edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 51

Sig Strikes

38 / 70

63.5%

Sig Str %

54%

30 / 51

Total Strikes

44 / 76

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:08

Ctrl Time

0:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Chris Barnett	21 / 34	24 / 37	0 / 0
1	Gian Villante	22 / 40	22 / 40	0 / 0
2	Chris Barnett	17 / 36	20 / 39	0 / 0
2	Gian Villante	8 / 11	8 / 11	0 / 0

Gian Villante

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights18

Chris Barnett

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights6