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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Tony Gravely won · S-DEC
Elo1391
Elo1455

Geraldo de FreitasvsTony GravelyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos Anjos · Saturday, November 14, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tony Gravely won

S-DEC

Style matchupGeraldo de Freitas: WrestlervsTony Gravely: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Tony Gravely wins(66.1%)

Actual result: Tony Gravely wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tony Gravely at -148 American odds

+$68 profit

$168 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Geraldo de Freitas
Red Corner
VS
Tony Gravely
Blue Corner
+117
(46%)
Vegas Odds
-148
(60%)
1391
Elo
1455
34
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'5"
182.88 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Geraldo de Freitas
oldest →
W
vs Felipe Colares · Feb 19
L
vs Chris Gutierrez · Aug 19
latest
Tony GravelyL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Nate Maness · Sep 21
W
vs Saimon Oliveira · Jan 22
W
KOvs Johnny Munoz · Jun 22
L
vs Javid Basharat · Sep 22
L
vs Victor Henry · Mar 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Geraldo de FreitasMetricTony Gravely
3.67
Strikes / min
3.82
2.62
Strikes absorbed / min
4.47
50%
Strike defense
44%
3.00
TDs / 15 min
5.40
59%
Takedown defense
52%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.05Δ 1.70 — meaningful gap-0.65

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1499 vs 1485Strikes3.0 vs 3.9Takedowns4.0 vs 4.8Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.20Form-0.3 vs -1.0
Geraldo de FreitasTony Gravely

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Geraldo de Freitas(3 fights)Tony Gravely(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -63.7|Blue +63.7
Recent Form
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Striker Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Layoff
Red +168.0|Blue -168.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Geraldo de FreitasTargetTony Gravely

By target zone

61
55% acc · 80%
Head
37
43% acc · 76%
12
86% acc · 16%
Body
4
80% acc · 8%
3
100% acc · 4%
Leg
8
89% acc · 16%

By position

69
59% acc · 91%
Distance
27
38% acc · 55%
4
67% acc · 5%
Clinch
5
83% acc · 10%
3
60% acc · 4%
Ground
17
74% acc · 35%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Geraldo de Freitas rounds
0
even
2
Tony Gravely rounds
Round 1Tony Gravely edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:00
10Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
3:38Control
Round 2Tony Gravely edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns1
Control0:02
15Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
3:23Control
Round 3Geraldo de Freitas edged it
Sig. strikes44
Takedowns0
Control0:00
24Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:54Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
76 / 128
Sig Strikes
49 / 101
59%
Sig Str %
47.7%
108 / 165
Total Strikes
86 / 144
1 / 4
TDs
7 / 17
16.5%
TD %
55.7%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:02
Ctrl Time
9:55

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Tony Gravely10 / 2323 / 402 / 20
1Geraldo de Freitas13 / 2722 / 400 / 10
2Tony Gravely15 / 3026 / 423 / 70
2Geraldo de Freitas19 / 2729 / 371 / 30
3Tony Gravely24 / 4837 / 622 / 80
3Geraldo de Freitas44 / 7457 / 880 / 00

Geraldo de Freitas

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights3

Tony Gravely

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights8