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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Geraldo de Freitas won · U-DEC R3

Elo1391

Elo1425

Geraldo de FreitasvsFelipe ColaresUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · Saturday, February 2, 2019Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil

Official fight result

Geraldo de Freitas won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Geraldo de Freitas wins(50.6%)

Actual result: Geraldo de Freitas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Geraldo de Freitas at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Geraldo de Freitas has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Geraldo de Freitas has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Geraldo de Freitas

Red Corner

Felipe Colares

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1391

Elo

1425

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Geraldo de FreitasL2 streak

oldest →

vs Chris Gutierrez · Aug 19

vs Tony Gravely · Nov 20

latest

Felipe ColaresL2 streak

oldest →

vs Domingo Pilarte · Jul 19

vs Montel Jackson · Jan 20

vs Luke Sanders · May 21

vs Chris Gutierrez · Oct 21

KOvs Chase Hooper · May 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Geraldo de FreitasMetricFelipe Colares

3.67

Strikes / min

2.17

2.62

Strikes absorbed / min

4.65

50%

Strike defense

36%

3.00

TDs / 15 min

1.88

59%

Takedown defense

43%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.05Δ 3.53 — meaningful gap-2.48

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Geraldo de Freitas(3 fights)Felipe Colares(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -34.0|Blue +34.0

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Geraldo de FreitasTargetFelipe Colares

By target zone

57% acc · 63%

Head

31% acc · 52%

78% acc · 29%

Body

75% acc · 29%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

57% acc · 19%

By position

59% acc · 67%

Distance

31% acc · 57%

81% acc · 27%

Clinch

89% acc · 38%

75% acc · 6%

Ground

33% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Geraldo de Freitas rounds

even

Felipe Colares rounds

Round 1Geraldo de Freitas edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control1:54

7Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

1:12Control

Round 2Geraldo de Freitas edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns2

Control1:49

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:02Control

Round 3Geraldo de Freitas edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns3

Control2:51

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

49 / 76

Sig Strikes

21 / 51

64%

Sig Str %

41.7%

68 / 96

Total Strikes

28 / 60

6 / 9

TDs

3 / 8

66.7%

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

6:34

Ctrl Time

4:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Felipe Colares	7 / 20	9 / 22	3 / 4
1	Geraldo de Freitas	19 / 27	25 / 34	1 / 2
2	Felipe Colares	6 / 13	9 / 18	0 / 1
2	Geraldo de Freitas	15 / 24	19 / 28	2 / 4
3	Felipe Colares	8 / 18	10 / 20	0 / 3
3	Geraldo de Freitas	15 / 25	24 / 34	3 / 3

Geraldo de Freitas

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3

Felipe Colares

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6